HIV/AIDS Pathogenesis: HIV-1 pathogenesis predictions differ between three mathematical models

AIDSWEEKLY Plus; Monday, May 15, 2006
Staff Medical Writers

According to a study from the United States, "The dynamics of HIV-1 infection consist of three distinct phases starting with primary infection, then latency and finally AIDS or drug therapy. In this paper, we model the dynamics of primary infection and the beginning of latency.

"We show that allowing for time delays in the model better predicts viral load data when compared to models with no time delays. We also find that our model of primary infection predicts the turnover rates for productively infected T cells and viral totals to be much longer than compared to data from patients receiving antiviral drug therapy."

"Hence the dynamics of the infection can change dramatically from one stage to the next. However," wrote M.S. Ciupe and colleagues at the University of Michigan, "we also show that with the data available the results are highly sensitive to the chosen model."

"We compare the results using analysis and Monte Carlo techniques for three different models and show how each predicts rather dramatic differences between the fitted parameters.

"We show, using a chi² test, that these differences between models are statistically significant and using a jackknifing method, we find the confidence intervals for the parameters. These differences in parameter estimations lead to widely varying conclusions about HIV pathogenesis," investigators reported.

"For instance," concluded Ciupe, "we find in our model with time delays the existence of a Hopf bifurcation that leads to sustained oscillations and that these oscillations could simulate the rapid turnover between viral strains and the appropriate CTL response necessary to control the virus, similar to that of a predator-prey type system."

Ciupe and colleagues published the results of their research in Mathematical Biosciences (Estimating kinetic parameters from HIV primary infection data through the eyes of three different mathematical models. Math Biosci. 2006 Mar;200(1):1-27).

For additional information, contact P.W. Nelson, University of Michigan, Dept. Math, Math Biology Research Group, 530 Church St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.

The publisher of the journal Mathematical Biosciences can be contacted at: Elsevier Science Inc., 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010-1710, USA.

Keywords: Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States, HIV/AIDS, Viral Pathogenesis, Mathematical Model Sensitivity, Monte Carlo Technique, Primary Infection.

This article was prepared by AIDS Weekly editors from staff and other reports.

Reference

Ciupe MS, Bivort BL, Bortz DM, et al., "Estimating kinetic parameters from HIV primary infection data through the eyes of three different mathematical models", Math Biosci. 2006 Mar;200(1):1-27.

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