AIDSWEEKLY Plus; Monday, August 23, 2004
Staff Medical Writers

According to a study from the United States, "The validity of UNAIDS/WHO estimates of the burden of HIV/AIDS is rightly questioned by politicians, scientists, and activists - especially since the 2003 estimates to be released in July, 2004, will show substantial drops in the burden of HIV/AIDS in several countries, and increases in others."

"However," N. Walker and coworkers reported, "the estimates are based on an explicit attempt to meet criteria we believe should guide the generation of international morbidity and mortality figures.

"These criteria extend beyond the quality of the input data to include features of the estimation process such as transparency and participation."

"The 2003 estimates now include plausible ranges for estimates rather than a single best estimate. This reduces the chance that insignificant differences in estimates from different sources are given importance," said researchers.

"We describe the levels of uncertainty associated with the UNAIDS/WHO estimates of HIV/AIDS. We explain the reason for moving to the use of plausibility bounds, the factors that determine the width of the bounds, and the implications for policy makers and program managers," Walker concluded.

Walker and colleagues published their study in Lancet (Estimating the global burden of HIV/AIDS: what do we really know about the HIV pandemic? Lancet. 2004 Jun 26;363(9427):2180-5.

For more information, contact N. Walker, UNICEF, 3 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017 USA.

Publisher contact information for the journal Lancet is: Lancet Ltd., 84 Theobalds Rd., London WC1X 8RR, England.

The information in this article comes under the major subject areas of AIDS/HIV, and Epidemiology.

This article was prepared by AIDS Weekly editors from staff and other reports.

Reference

Walker N, Grassly NC, Garnett GP, et al., "Estimating the global burden of HIV/AIDS: what do we really know about the HIV pandemic?", Lancet. 2004 Jun 26;363(9427):2180-5.

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