AEGiS-WSJ: Global AIDS Estimates Are Lowered, Largely on Better Data

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2007. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Global AIDS Estimates Are Lowered, Largely on Better Data

Wall Street Journal - November 20, 2007
Marilyn Chase, marilyn.chase@wsj.com

Global estimates of the AIDS epidemic this year were revised to 33.2 million, down 6.3 million from 39.5 million projected last year, due to improved data gathering, according to AIDS experts at the United Nations and World Health Organization.

An estimated 2.5 million people became newly infected this year, and 2.1 million died of the blood-borne virus, spread through sex, drug use and mother-to-child transmission, the agencies said.

The 16% cut -- largely the result of statistical adjustment rather than improvements in world health -- was good tidings for a field battered by bad news from the recent failure of a major vaccine trial.

In Geneva, Paul DeLay, director of evidence, monitoring and policy for the U.N. Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS, said a big part of the reduction in AIDS' global toll came from the previously reported cut in India's caseload, and the balance from reduced estimates in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe.

Asked how estimates could have been so far off, Dr. DeLay said, "The data are tough to get."

"Measurement of infectious diseases has always been a challenge in the global setting of low-income developing countries," Dr. DeLay said. "The challenge is equally true for TB, polio and childhood diarrhea. In spite of this year's revision, the numbers for HIV are some of the best we've got."

In the early days of the epidemic, estimates of AIDS infection came largely from tests of pregnant women conducted at prenatal clinics. The latest revision comes from the addition of improved national population estimates in 30 countries with widespread AIDS. These countries undertook neighborhood surveys involving family interviews and blood tests.

Dr. DeLay cautioned countries to maintain vigilance against a resurgent pandemic. "If you let your guard down -- and we've seen this in the States, Thailand and Uganda -- with the next generation moving to sexual maturity, you start all over again," Dr. DeLay said. He said U.S. disease-control experts are expected shortly to raise their estimates of AIDS infections above the 40,000-a-year rate of recent years.

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