Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2006. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Wall Street Journal - May 31, 2006
Marilyn Chase at marilyn.chase@wsj.com
India's estimated total of 5.7 million infected people narrowly exceeds South Africa's estimated 5.5 million, a United Nations group reported. The estimates, released yesterday in the 2006 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, emphasize that the center of the disease remains in sub-Saharan Africa. African countries south of the Sahara have about 25 million cases; among South Africans ages 15 to 49, the infection rate is 18.8%. Despite stabilizing or subsiding HIV rates in parts of Eastern Africa, Southern African countries have made little or no progress in reversing the epidemic.
India's epidemic is thinly spread among its 1.1 billion people, for an adult infection rate that remains under 1%, at 0.9%. That estimated rate is slightly higher than the rate of infection in the U.S., which is about 0.6% of the adult population. India has, in four of its southern states, achieved a declining rate of new infections in young people. But in northern India, the disease is spreading rapidly among intravenous drug users.
The current administration in New Delhi has more openly acknowledged the problems posed by HIV and AIDS and increased its funding and programs somewhat. But the disease's spread could complicate India's efforts to establish itself as a large industrial power. And it illustrates the high stakes for businesses in the U.S. and other nations as they become increasingly intertwined with the Indian economy.
Officials with India's National AIDS Control Organization couldn't be reached for comment.
UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot expressed concern that in most places, the epidemic hasn't been reversed. "Our first disappointment was that in southern Africa in most affected countries, we still see continued increase," he said in an interview.
In China, meanwhile, UNAIDS said 650,000 people are HIV-infected -- just 0.1% of adults. But while China's HIV/AIDS epidemic is relatively small, it is growing by 70,000 new cases a year, UNAIDS said earlier this year, and has spread from commercial blood donors to intravenous drug users. The percentage of the population with the virus is also rising in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam. Russia and Ukraine both have worsening infection rates among intravenous drug users.
UNAIDS currently estimates 38.6 million people world-wide have HIV/AIDS, with 4.1 million new infections and 2.8 million deaths a year.
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