Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2003. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Wall Street Journal - November 25, 2003
Marilyn Chase, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
The lower estimate isn't due to any slowing of the global epidemic but rather to revised data collection and statistical sampling methods that corrected last year's estimate. The epidemic grew apace, the agencies said, with five million people newly infected by the human immune-deficiency virus, and three million people dying of AIDS in 2003.
"The most important finding is that the epidemic continues to deepen and expand, tightening its grip on Southern Africa and threatening Southeast Asia," said Peter Piot, the executive director of UNAIDS in a telephone conference from London Tuesday. World-wide spending on AIDS in developing countries, which will total about $4.7 billion this year, remains less than half the $10 billion needed, he said.
UNAIDS and WHO said the new 2003 estimate of 40 million people with HIV or AIDS compares with a revised 2002 total of 38.5 million. The new numbers were derived by sampling infection rates of pregnant women attending prenatal clinics and by national surveillance data offered by many countries. The new estimate is actually the midpoint in an estimated range going from 34 million people infected to 46 million. Despite improved sampling, the agencies said that "there is no gold standard for AIDS surveillance."
The stronghold of AIDS remains sub-Saharan Africa where 26.6 million people are living with the virus, including more than three million new infections and more than two million deaths during 2003.
Asia and the Pacific are home to 7.4 million people with HIV or AIDS, up by one million during 2003. India alone has an estimated 4.1 million to 4.9 million people with the virus, many of them sex workers and intravenous-drug users. AIDS is erupting in China due to intravenous-drug use and unsterile blood collection.
Dr. Piot praised condom programs, which have helped bring down infection rates among prostitutes in Cambodia and Thailand. But new political momentum around the world, while encouraging, is inadequate, Dr. Piot said. Despite advances such as South Africa's recent decision to provide antiviral drugs, he blasted as "insufficient" the response by Russia and other countries of Eastern Europe. Countries invaded by the virus "can either act now or pay later," he said in a statement, "as Africa is now having to pay."
Write to Marilyn Chase at marilyn.chase@wsj.com
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