Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2003. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Wall Street Journal - November 25, 2003
Marilyn Chase, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
The lower estimate isn't due to any slowing of the global pandemic, but rather to revised data-collection and statistical-sampling methods that corrected last year's overestimate. Indeed the epidemic grew apace, the agencies said, with five million people newly infected by the human immunodeficiency virus, and three million people dying of AIDS in 2003.
UNAIDS and WHO said the new estimate of 40 million was derived by a variety of methods, including sampling infection rates of pregnant women attending prenatal clinics and by national surveillance data offered by many countries. Despite improved sampling, the agencies said "there is no gold standard for AIDS surveillance." Neither sampling method is perfect: prenatal clinics may not reflect infection rates among other risk groups, and national surveys rely on people's voluntary participation in testing, leading to possible underestimates.
The stronghold of AIDS remains sub-Saharan Africa where 26.6 million people are living with the virus, including over three million new infections and over two million deaths during 2003.
Newer frontiers of the pandemic in Asia and the Pacific are home to more than seven million people with HIV/AIDS, a number that grew by one million during the past year. India alone has an estimated four million to five million people with the virus, which is highly prevalent among sex workers and intravenous drug users in some areas.
AIDS is erupting in China due to intravenous drug use and unsterile blood collection. Outbreaks among prostitutes in Cambodia and Thailand prompted adoption of successful condom-promotion programs that have quelled transmission in the sex trade. But recent efforts to stanch the disease among Thai drug users brought a bloody crackdown on dealers which, although defended by the government, was protested by Amnesty International.
WHO will announce later this week a detailed plan to bring antiviral drugs to three million people by 2005. South Africa recently announced its program to provide antiviral drugs after years of skepticism and reluctance by top government officials there.
New prevention and treatment initiatives around the world are encouraging but inadequate, said UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot. Countries invaded by the virus "can either act now or pay later," he said, "as Africa is now having to pay."
Write to Marilyn Chase at marilyn.chase@wsj.com
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