Wall Street Journal - September 3, 2003
Jeanne Cummings, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

A campaign tailor-made to appeal exclusively to blacks? Not exactly. Mr. Bush is primarily after Hispanic and white, middle-class voters.

White House strategists say they consider the vast majority of black voters, who opposed Mr. Bush 9 to 1 four years ago, out of their reach.

But "tolerance issues send signals to a lot of folks, many of whom aren't just minorities," says Matthew Dowd, White House polling expert.

So the White House is targeting suburban white voters in swing states and the fast-growing Hispanic population. Gains in those constituencies are critical to the president. Mr. Bush's advisers have concluded he likely will be out of a job if he receives support from the same percentage of white, black and Hispanic voters in 2004 as he did in 2000. "We'd lose the popular vote by 2.5 million votes and the Electoral College," Mr. Dowd says.

A Shift in the West

That is largely because of the growth of Hispanics, who have voted Democratic by about a 6-to-4 ratio. Their rise is turning once-solid Republican states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado into swing states, widening the ground Mr. Bush must cover in his re-election campaign.

The White House hopes to renew attention to the president's "compassionate conservative" philosophy and erase images of a Republican Party unfriendly to immigrants or minorities. When Mr. Bush denounced gay marriages recently, White House strategists made sure he balanced it with a call for respect for individuals from all minority groups. When he opposed the University of Michigan's affirmative-action program, he said he supported the general notion that race could be used as a factor in creating diversity. In addition, he sharply rebuked former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott's inflammatory remark last winter that the nation might have been better off if pro-segregation candidate Strom Thurmond had won the presidency in 1948.

For Mary Beth Driscoll, a white, moderate Republican from Montgomery County, Pa., the strategy is working. Montgomery is a classic swing county, where moderate Republicans often have crossed party lines. Al Gore took the county and the state in 2000, and winning Pennsylvania is critical for Mr. Bush in 2004.

A Positive Image

Ms. Driscoll recently accepted an invitation to attend an appearance by Mr. Bush in Philadelphia, where he touted his plan to make government money available to church-based support programs. She also has been keenly interested in the president's proposal to provide $15 billion over five years to combat AIDS in Africa. Ms. Driscoll has been pleased by the image the programs are projecting of her party.

"Look what he's doing for AIDS in Africa," she says. "That is phenomenal."

She was also impressed with the detailed plan White House officials laid out for getting assistance to faith-based groups. "I certainly believe moderates will be listening to his message because of the sincerity issue," she says. "He's put his money where his mouth is."

Marie Cavanaugh, a Republican activist in Montgomery County, says Mr. Bush's strategy is helping local party officials recruit minorities, particularly among Hispanics moving from Philadelphia to her county northwest of the city.

Among blacks, however, Mr. Bush's message is being met with deep skepticism. During an address to the National Urban League in Pittsburgh last month, Mr. Bush ticked off a host of race-based programs designed to funnel government money into minority communities and organizations. He noted the Minority Business Development Agency is helping minority businesses win government contracts and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has set a goal of helping 5.5 million minorities become homeowners. He also highlighted his Africa AIDS program.

Patricia Coulter, president of the Philadelphia Urban League, said she needs "more substance" before she will be persuaded the programs will really make a difference. "When do we get that funding? What will that funding look like?" she asks.

Skepticism among blacks is stoked by Mr. Bush's refusal to accept a longstanding invitation to meet with the Congressional Black Caucus, which White House political operatives believe would inevitably turn confrontational. Instead, they have invited black leaders to the White House for events, but most caucus members have refused to attend because they say they are being used as props.

Administration officials are hoping for better responses among Hispanics, especially those who are better-off and more likely to vote Republican.

According to a Democratic analysis of the 2002 campaign, Democrats received 60% of the Hispanic vote, compared with 39% for Republicans, a few points narrower than in the 2000 election.

Hispanic Push

The Republican National Committee has launched an aggressive campaign to woo Hispanic supporters. They set up registration booths at the swearing-in ceremonies for new citizens and recently opened a recruitment office in one of the largest Hispanic communities in New York. The party also has developed an extensive list of contacts at minority media outlets and regularly sends their "talking points" and major announcements to them.

Sometimes, Republicans use their dominance at the White House and in Congress to coordinate a message. Take the case of Democratic opposition to the appointment of attorney Miguel Estrada to the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia. Senate Republicans, aware that no Democrats had shifted their positions, forced seven votes on Mr. Estrada's nomination this spring and summer. Each time they lost, and each time the RNC sent a blast of mail to Hispanic radio and television stations and lined up a host of speakers for the outlets.

Stan Greenberg, a Democratic analyst, says middle-class Hispanics are more open to Republican messages than those with lower incomes. But he says the growth in the Hispanic population is in lower-income sectors, not the middle class, and that bodes well for his party. "You can have an individual trend that is marginally helpful that is overwhelmed by the overall trend," he says.

Write to Jeanne Cummings at jeanne.cummings@wsj.com

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