Wall Street Journal - October 14, 2002
David Bank, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Officials with the Global Fund, an independent body created early this year, said the funds are needed to finance a raft of highly effective country-by-country proposals. The Global Fund has received a total of $2.1 billion in pledges, to be paid through 2006, and has announced a first round of commitments, totaling $616 million over two years. The first checks, for programs in Ghana, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Haiti, are expected to be issued by the end of the month. But Richard Feachem, executive director of the fund, says funds aren't available to cover the second round of grant-making, scheduled for January. The fund has already received eligible applications totaling about $5.2 billion.

"We need huge amounts of additional money quickly," Dr. Feachem said in an interview at the fund's temporary offices here. "The programs are ready. Any delay now will be measured by millions of lives lost and billions of dollars of additional cost to later respond to the expanded epidemics."

Last month, the National Intelligence Council, which provides estimates to CIA director George Tenet, released sharply higher projections of the number of people likely to be infected with the virus that causes AIDS by 2010. The report predicted 50 million to 75 million cases in just five countries -- Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India and China -- and said devastation in these "next wave" countries would exceed that in southern Africa, which is projected to have between 30 million and 35 million cases. The estimates reflect only the estimated number of AIDS infections at the end of the decade; that is, they don't include the deaths that will occur in the meantime.

In Nigeria and Ethiopia, AIDS is likely to exacerbate social strife and reduce the regional influence of those countries, the report said. In Russia, AIDS will accelerate a population decline and cut economic growth. India, with as many as 25 million cases, and China, with as many as 15 million cases, were seen as more likely to be able to absorb the impact of the epidemic, albeit at tremendous costs. All five countries were seen as ill-equipped and so far largely unwilling to mount major responses to the accelerating crises.

Of the $2.1 billion pledged so far, the U.S., at $500 million, is the largest contributor, followed by the United Kingdom and Italy. The pledged amounts haven't all been paid; as of Oct. 10, the fund had received only $483 million, and needed to receive an additional $154 million in order to complete agreements with proposals approved in the first round of funding.

Write to David Bank at david.bank@wsj.com2
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