Wall Street Journal - August 14, 2001
Ron Winslow, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Public-health officials presented new data suggesting that the AIDS epidemic in the U.S. has stabilized, but they warned of a potential resurgence unless efforts to prevent its spread are intensified.

About 20,000 new AIDS cases were reported during the first six months of last year, for an annual rate of about 40,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which issued its annual update on the epidemic. There were 41,849 new cases reported in 1999.

About 8,000 deaths were reported during the first six months of last year, an annualized rate of 16,000. That compares with 16,765 in 1999, indicating a leveling off after the dramatic reduction in annual mortality since the introduction of AIDS drugs in 1996. The data on both new cases and deaths reflect national trends that began in mid-1998, the CDC said.

But researchers at the National HIV Prevention Conference this week in Atlanta are presenting new data suggesting that high-risk sexual behavior is on the rise, especially among young gay men. Unless prevention efforts are redoubled, said Helene Gayle, who heads the CDC's prevention program for AIDS, sexually transmitted diseases and tuberculosis, "the chances of [future trends] going in the wrong direction are higher than for going in the right direction."

The worries stem from a recent six-city CDC study indicating that HIV infections are increasing among gay or bisexual men 23 to 29 years old at 4.4% a year. That rate is comparable with infection levels among some groups of gay men in the mid-1980s. The infection rate was particularly high -- nearly 15% -- among African American men in the study, compared with 3.5% among Latinos and 2.5% among whites. HIV is the virus that causes AIDS.

"We're seeing high rates in young gay men who were not part of the first wave of the epidemic," Dr. Gayle said. "Prevention is a life-long investment. Not only do we have to make sure we get the message out to each new generation, but we have to continue prevention services to support safe behavior for people over the long haul."

Don Des Jarlais, an AIDS researcher at Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, is scheduled to present a study at the meeting Tuesday showing that syringe exchange, drug counseling and testing programs in New York City led to a sharp drop in infection rate among intravenous drug users. Such programs aren't widely accepted.

The CDC said 42% of new AIDS cases occur among gay or bisexual men; 33% are reported by heterosexuals and 25% by injectable-drug users who spread HIV by sharing needles. About 30% of new AIDS cases are among women.

Write to Ron Winslow at ron.winslow@wsj.com2

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