Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1996. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
The Wall Street Journal - June 6 1996
Michael Wright, Scientific Social Research, Norman, Okla.
CDC officials Satcher and Gayle suggest that in 1987 it was impossible to know that there was no risk of a U.S. heterosexual HIV epidemic. They wrote that those at highest risk are not readily distinguishable from the rest of the public. Their statements are indefensible in view of numerous articles in scientific literature, as well as publications of their own agency.
In December 1987, the CDC issued a publication that specifically delineated groups at increased risk for HIV infection as follows: Exclusively homosexual males, males with infrequent homosexual contact, injecting drug users, hemophiliacs, and other groups. The "other" classification included heterosexual partners of persons at high risk, heterosexuals born in Haiti and Central Africa, and blood-transfusion recipients. These groups appear to be fairly "distinguishable" from the rest of the public. With the exception of women who might be the sexual partners of bisexual males who conceal their history of sex with men, it is easy for one to know whether he is a member of one of these groups identified at risk.
Those members of the U.S. population not belonging to any of the groups listed above were classified by the CDC as "heterosexuals without specific identified risk." The CDC estimated the size of this population to be 142 million. The agency estimated that the HIV infection rate in this group -- the vast majority of American adults and adolescents -- was 2 in 10,000 compared with 20% to 25% for homosexual males. Thus, for gay males the infection rate was 1,000 times greater compared with heterosexuals outside of specific risk groups. (Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Dec. 18, 1987, Vol. 36/No. S-6, Table 14).
Further, in April 1988 CDC officials James Allen and James Curran published an article in which they cited several papers presented at the 1987 Third International AIDS Conference in Washington, D.C. They also cited a publication by Nancy Padian, and thus indicated awareness of her expertise and reputation. (Source: American Journal of Public Health, April 1988, Vol. 78/No 4, pages 381-386). How could they have overlooked her paper, presented at the 1987 conference, in which she demonstrated that the odds were 1,000 to one against transmission of HIV in a single act of unprotected vaginal sex between an infected male and an uninfected female? (Source: Abstract THP. 3-48:171, presented at the Third International AIDS Conference, Washington, D.C., June 1987).
In a 1988 publication, researchers took information of this nature and demonstrated that the odds were five million to one against a new HIV infection taking place in a single act of unprotected vaginal sex between two people who are members of that massive population that the CDC recognized and labeled as "heterosexuals without specific identified risk." (Source: Journal of the American Medical Association, April 22/29, 1988, Vol. 259/No. 16, pages 2428-2432). Are we to believe that Dr. Koop and his associates at the CDC were not capable of figuring this out?
For brevity's sake I refrain from citing numerous other scientific articles demonstrating the extremely low risk of HIV transmission by means of vaginal sex. If CDC officials were unable to draw appropriate conclusions from the available evidence, they should be held to account for their incompetence. If they knew of this evidence (the more likely hypothesis), then they should be held to account for the extraordinarily dishonest, deceitful and expensive scare campaign they have orchestrated.
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