AEGiS-UPI: Analysis: ANC expected to win despite ills United Press InternationalImportant note: Information in this article was accurate in 2004. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Analysis: ANC expected to win despite ills

United Press International - April 13, 2004
Steve Mitchell


PORT ELIZABETH, South Africa, April 13 (UPI) -- It's a foregone conclusion the African National Congress will retain its position as the majority political party in South Africa after Wednesday's elections, despite its inability to tackle high levels of poverty, unemployment, crime, rape and HIV/AIDS during its 10-year reign.

The reason for its predicted success is the party has widespread support from a predominantly black and forgiving public that still remembers the oppressive apartheid regime. No matter how bad things are, the public sentiment goes, the standard of living is improving and it's still better than life under apartheid.

There are 35 parties vying for Parliament in this year's election and some, if not all, have attacked the ANC for not doing enough to deal with poverty, unemployment, crime and AIDS -- perennial issues in South Africa. But the public, for the most part, seems to have ignored the criticisms as well as the other parties.

A recent poll conducted by MarkData and commissioned by the Helen Suzman Foundation indicates the ANC will get 65 percent of the total vote; the next largest is the Democratic Alliance with 12 percent.

The poll also indicates rising support for South African President Thabo Mbeki, a veteran ANC campaigner. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed said Mbeki was doing a good job, up from 27 percent in February 2002 and a slight increase from August when his approval rating was at 43 percent.

In addition, 60 percent of blacks, who make up 80 percent of the country's nearly 43 million people, support Mbeki. On the other hand, 16 percent of whites said they felt positive about his term. Whites make up 10 percent of the population.

The poll sampled 2,300 South Africans from across the country; no margin of error was provided.

ANC now holds some 266 seats in the 400-seat National Assembly, just short of the two-thirds majority, and controls seven of the country's nine provinces. The next closest party is the Democratic Party, which has 38 seats, followed by the Zulu-based Inkatha Freedom Party with 34, the New National Party with 28.

"We will win" in the elections, Nomahlubi Hewitt-Coleman -- an event coordinator with NuWave Communication in Port Elizabeth who is an ANC supporter -- told United Press International.

Hewitt-Coleman said she doesn't pay attention to issues raised by the other parties because she knows the ANC will win.

"We deserve it. We fought for it," she said, making reference to the fact that ANC members, including Nelson Mandela, were instrumental in the decades-long struggle to do away with apartheid and bring democracy to South Africa.

Others UPI talked to echoed similar sentiments. Life is improving overall.

Despite the support, Vuyo Toto, the party's regional secretary in Port Elizabeth, complained to reporters during a recent meeting of what he called unfair treatment in the media.

The party has been criticized for not generating enough jobs and for not ensuring there was adequate infrastructure in place to support the government's plan to roll out free AIDS drugs. But the newspapers have not presented the other side, ANC's response to those issues, Toto said.

He acknowledged the "big challenges" ANC faces include the lack of houses, poverty and the high rates of unemployment -- more than 40 percent nationwide -- but he noted the party had taken steps to address the issues.

Although Toto acknowledged "many of our people are still without houses," he said the ANC was building homes, including 26,000 this year in Port Elizabeth or the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan region as it has recently been renamed.

Poverty is a tougher challenge, Toto said, noting, "Our people are still poor, our people are still unemployed." In the slums, or townships as they are called, unemployment is at a staggering 90 percent among adults.

The ANC is addressing both poverty and the lack of jobs by investing $15 billion in public works programs with the intent of improving infrastructure and stimulating the production of new jobs. The government has also built schools and medical clinics in rural areas that never had them before.

It is also attempting to address AIDS, having recently announced its plan to make AIDS drugs available free of charge to those who need them.

At present, the disease "is well-managed," Toto said, despite the fact that South Africa, with 20 percent infection rates nationwide, has one of the highest rates of the disease in the world.

The AIDS problem, which is found more in youth and young adults, is a concern because it could interfere with efforts to tackle poverty and create jobs. Toto said it "worries employers and employees alike," but he noted it has not reached a level where it is deterring foreign investors or discouraging tourists.

Still, despite the problems, most people seem satisfied with the ANC performance.

Zukile Khambi, who has relatives who still live in the slums of Port Elizabeth, said there has even been progress there and his relatives' quality of living has improved since the days of apartheid.

On a recent visit to ANC's Port Elizabeth office, a group of reporters and tourist guides were given free T-shirts, with a picture of Mbeki on the front and the party's slogan on the back: "A people's contract to create work and fight poverty."

Anele Qaba and Clemmy Mbatani, two tour guides from the Eastern Cape Tourism board old enough to remember what life was like under apartheid, instantly and enthusiastically discarded their current shirts in exchange for the ANC T-shirts.

Asked if he liked the new shirt, Qaba said, "No. I love it."


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