Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1997. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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United Press International; Monday December 1, 1997 - 7:00 PM EST
The researchers from the San Francisco Department of Public Health's AIDS Office are predicting that 1,196 cases of AIDS will be reported in San Francisco in 1998. That's down from a high of 3,332 in 1992.
They say the drop reflects dramatic reductions in the number of new HIV infections among gay and bisexual men and injecting drug users because of significant changes in high-risk behavior over the past decade.
The researchers say the number of new AIDS cases is only reflecting the change now because of the median 10-year incubation period betwen infection with HIV and development of AIDS.
The study predicts, however, that the incidents of AIDS will increase slightly among women, heterosexuals who use injection drugs and people in other risk groups.
Dr. Mitchell Katz, the city and county's interim director of health, said, "While there has been a decline in the number of new AIDS cases, the number of persons living with AIDS has actually increased in San Francisco. The reason is that the new therapies have allowed people with AIDS to live longer, healthier lives."
The researchers' data, released today in conjunction with World AIDS Day, will be published in an upcoming issue of the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology.
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