Sunday Times (Johannesburg) - October 21, 2007
Brendan Boyle

Only four out of every 10 South Africans thought he was doing a good job in September, when TNS Research Surveys conducted the latest poll in a seven-year series. That was down from 54% in June, which means a quarter of those who still believed in Mbeki in the middle of the year lost faith in him as events unfolded over the following three months.

"The single most newsworthy event in that period was the President's firing of the deputy Health minister," pollster Neil Higgs told the Sunday Times.

Mbeki sacked Madlala-Routledge - who had won public acclaim for accelerating the national programme against HIV/Aids while Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang was on sick leave - for going on a foreign trip without his permission.

Amid the uproar over her sacking, he repeatedly defended Tshabalala-Msimang and dismissed reports that hundreds of babies had died unnecessarily in East London's Frere Hospital because of mismanagement and unhealthy conditions.

Though East London remained a relative stronghold for Mbeki, his support in the city plunged from 84% at the end of 2006 to 56% in the wake of the Frere Hospital scandal.

Higgs said the survey was conducted before Mbeki suspended Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli.

"We are out in the field at the moment and I suspect his support will be even lower in the next report in November," he said.

Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Policy Studies cautioned that poll results did not necessarily reflect the sentiment in African National Congress party branches ahead of the December conference in Polokwane, where delegates will re-elect or replace Mbeki as party president.

"The question is whether the election result in Limpopo will mirror the results of this survey, whether public perceptions will influence or be shared by the delegates to the ANC conference," he said.

The company, which conducts five polls a year, always includes questions about Mbeki's performance.

His approval rating climbed steadily throughout his first five-year term, from a low of 32% after he became President to a peak of 66% in June 2004, apparently buoyed by the celebrations of 10 years of democracy.

Since then, the trend line has headed steadily downwards, with an autumn spike each year that could be linked to Budget promises.

The 2005 spike was boosted by support for Mbeki's decision to fire Deputy President Jacob Zuma, after he was charged with corruption linked to the multibillion-rand arms deal.

The slide since June this year has been the biggest, knocking 14 percentage points off his approval rating. Support among whites was more than halved, and among blacks , his support plunged from 65% to 53%.

Higgs said a significant element of the latest poll was the increase to a record 17% in those who said they did not know what to make of Mbeki's recent performance.

"Mbeki's lack of visibility clearly is a problem. The country needs a decisive leader. Fiddling in the shadows creates a negative impression," he said.

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