Sunday Times (Johannesburg) - June 19, 2005

The economy is growing at a rate of between 7% and 8% a year, but the World Bank reckons this figure could be as much as one percentage point higher if almost one in seven Mozambicans were not HIV-positive.

It is estimated that 500 people become infected with the virus every day.

Malaria is another huge killer, with Mozambique ranked among the 10 nations most affected by the disease. However, most malaria deaths occur in children under the age of five, so the disease does not have much of an impact on the productive labour force.

"Aids is one of the biggest drags on the economy," says World Bank economist Gregor Binkert. "Within five years we estimate GDP will be 14% to 20% less compared with the scenario without the HIV/Aids pandemic."

Critics say the government is not doing enough to halt the spread of the disease.

"The fight against Aids needs more urgency. The political leadership needs to be more active in combating the disease than it has been," says one critic who asked not to be named.

That's not to say the government is ignoring Aids. "It is working on the problem. It is just not doing enough," says the critic.

President Armando Guebuza said at the beginning of this year that the government would step up its battle against the pandemic and hoped to cut the number of infections to 350 a day.

HIV/Aids presents a significant threat primarily because of its prevalence among 15- to 49-year-olds, the most productive segment of the labour force, where almost 15% of people are affected. This figure is projected to rise to 15.6% this year. Among women the rate of prevalence is expected to be 17.5% and in men 13.4%.

"The overall figure will create a drag to growth because productive labour, in whom the country has invested money to train and equip with skills, will die in their most productive years," says Binkert.

Noelani King-Conradie, an independent economist, says average numbers mask the massive variations between the provinces, where rates sometimes are at more than 20%.

"It is estimated that infant and child mortality in Mozambique will increase up to 20% or more as a direct result of Aids and its related infections," she says.

The disease also threatens to have a direct impact on the rights of children.

"Health and education services lose skilled staff and children of affected families have to drop out of school either to work or to care for younger siblings," she says.

Donors have been pouring money into the country to try to help in the fight against the disease.

"It's not for lack of money. There is plenty of it sloshing around. There just needs to be increased political will," says a critic.

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