AEGiS-ST: Consumer spending will be disrupted Sunday Times (Johannesburg)Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2004. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Consumer spending will be disrupted

Sunday Times - Sunday, 22 August, 2004


Companies must look beyond their own HIV/Aids programmes and start assessing how the pandemic is affecting target markets and changing spending patterns, says David Blecher, principal actuarial consultant at Glenrand MIB's Benefit Services Actuarial division.

Blecher says the typical corporate response to HIV/Aids is to introduce awareness programmes and make "sometimes inadequate provisions in company medical aid and group life schemes".

Companies should also be looking at the "bigger-picture stuff".

He says household spending is likely to shift from nice-to-have goods to basic needs - such as food, clothing and shelter - as HIV affects breadwinners.

A company selling white goods, for example, is therefore likely to be affected earlier by Aids than a pharmaceutical company.

By the year 2010, 15% of the total South African population and 9% of all newborns will be infected by HIV, according to the Actuarial Society.

Blecher says companies need to "look at all the risks and how they impact on each other". For instance, few companies have analysed the potential double-whammy effect of Aids and a stronger rand.

He says it also seems likely that new JSE Securities Exchange listing requirements and South African Institute of Chartered Accountants reporting standards will require boards of directors to disclose the risks facing their companies because of HIV/Aids, as well as the strategies they have to contain them.

The CEO of Sabcoha, Brad Mears, says one way the pandemic is and will continue to change consumer spending patterns is to shift it away from luxury goods - such as sunglasses - to healthcare products such as vitamin supplements and immune-booster tablets.

The impact that HIV/Aids has and will continue to have on major issues like demand for housing, skills shortages and changing demographics is equally important, Mears says.

Business guru Clem Sunter says many companies are aware that Aids is a key strategic issue, especially if their main customer base is in South Africa.

However, Sunter - who is chairman of the Anglo American Chairman's Fund and a board member of Sabcoha - says South Africa's methodology in assessing the HIV/Aids epidemic is a problem when it comes to developing a business strategy.

For instance, nobody really knows the male or female prevalence rates among different age groups because the only available prevalence data comes from antenatal clinics.

Sunter says that using prevalence rates among pregnant women to build a prevalence model for the entire population is clearly unreliable.

Furthermore, the reluctance of most companies to release their prevalence rates, based on anonymous saliva testing, is exacerbating the lack of accurate data.

Sunter dismisses fears that publicly releasing this information would damage a company's share price as "ridiculous".

Instead, such a move would demonstrate the company's commitment to tackling HIV/Aids, he argues.


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