Sunday Times (Johannesburg) - Sunday 14 April 2002
Carol Paton

The comrades complained to Nelson Mandela that Mac Maharaj had been telling them lies. "It is clear," they said, "that the sun rises on one side of the sky, moves across it and sets on the other."

The story is told by ANC intellectual Pallo Jordan to illustrate how absurd it is that the ANC should attempt to hold opinions on matters of science.

"The President has expressed his view. He's not a scientist and I am not about to give his view serious consideration," retorts Jordan.

The story also shows that with its particular history, the ANC has long been able to accommodate internal differences that would seem intolerable to a conventional political party.

So, while Mbeki has lost credibility in the world for entertaining fringe ideas on Aids, within the ANC, where majority opinion is steadily growing that he may have been mistaken, it's still not an unforgivable error.

It is the ANC, at its national conference in December, not the general electorate that will decide whether Mbeki deserves a second term as president. The key question is therefore Mbeki's status within the ANC.

Three years ago, he was unassailable. Now, those who have disliked and distrusted him from the start - mainly among the left and old internal mass democratic movements - have been joined by others previously unaligned in ANC factional politics.

His enemies have been buoyed by a barrage of criticism mostly over Aids from local and international media, foreign governments and the business community.

But although his views no longer carry the weight they once did, Mbeki still comfortably commands authority and respect among senior and middle-ranking ANC leaders. For one thing, on an interpersonal level Mbeki is seductive, frequently leaving people in awe of his brilliance. Says one communist not well disposed towards Mbeki's politics: "Nobody has articulated a project like Thabo has. There is no one who can oppose him."

The second reason for Mbeki's internal strength is that the dynamics of the ANC's national executive committee favour a drawn-out leadership transition.

For example, while a growing number of people in the NEC believe that Mbeki has been wrong about Aids, few are prepared to voice their dissent or insist on an explicit policy change.

The attitude of most members is expressed by this sentiment from a Limpopo provincial leader: "A lot of us would be guided by the conventional view that HIV causes Aids. But at the same time scientific debate should continue."

Bolstering this group is a growing number of "appointed" people on the national executive committee who owe their positions to Mbeki. This includes 16 observers - members of the Cabinet not on the executive and high-ranking provincial and parliamentary officials - and 20 ex officio members from the provinces and leagues.

A second powerful group, which includes the likes of Jordan and the Speaker of Parliament, Frene Ginwala, have little patience with the view that Aids should continue to be an academic debate.

Ginwala says: "It is irrelevant who believes what; what is important is what happens on the ground."

Still, there will be no fight with Mbeki over Aids in the ANC national executive committee. There is another group that protects him from a challenge over Aids - those who support his view. In this, Peter Mokaba is the most vociferous but he is supported by the head of Mbeki's office at ANC headquarters, Smuts Ngonyama, Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang and others who entertain conspiracy theories.

Mbeki's communist admirer says: "He has checkmated all his opponents in advance."

And since Jacob Zuma, Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa were forced into declaring their allegiance to him last year, no one will announce their candidacy in December. Instead, those who dislike Mbeki are switching their attention to the 2009 leadership race.

"Even if they create the impression that they can do something about the present, what they are really concerned about is the future. They want to make it difficult for the incumbent and current leadership to influence the choice of the next leader," says a Gauteng official.

Those close to Deputy President Jacob Zuma see their man as a contender. Zuma's position as deputy president of the ANC does not appear under threat and he is likely to be re-elected. Once secure, he can swing into action to compete for the ANC presidency .

Interestingly, though, Gauteng Premier Mbhazima Shilowa, through his unwitting defiance of Tshabalala-Msimang, has also come to the fore. Shilowa would be a strong contender - attractive to both the left and many in the Mbeki crowd.

Although the ANC presidency will not be up for grabs, there are top positions that appear vulnerable.

Tshabalala-Msimang's husband, ANC treasurer-general Mendi Msimang, could face a challenge and it is speculated that heavyweights with business experience such as Sexwale and Ramaphosa could be persuaded to run if the position were made part-time.

Chairman Mosiuoa Lekota also looks vulnerable after overreaching himself during negotiations with the National Party. Lekota, who brokered a deal promising the NP the world, including executive participation at all levels of government and in all provinces, was hauled over the coals in the NEC.

The deputy secretary-general, Thenjiwe Mtintso, has weakened her position after burning her fingers with Mbeki by dismissing his criticism of the SACP at its last national congress. Then she angered him over local government deployments.

It might be tempting fate to predict so much so far in advance of the conference. There is always the chance of a wild card or two, as former President Nelson Mandela recently showed. His intervention in the Aids debate once again sparked theories of plots, with one version involving Sexwale and Ramaphosa and another suggesting Zuma.

But no evidence can be found to support these theories and, in all likelihood, there is nothing more to Mandela's intervention than his distress over the Aids policy.

In the end, it appears that Mbeki will escape any backlash against the government's approach to Aids. Those who have nailed their colours too firmly to his mast, however, may have something to worry about.

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