Sunday Times, South Africa - Sunday, May 9, 1999
Cornia Pretorius and Janet Heard

Enrolments have halved since 1994 at some colleges, universities and technikons and experts say the shortage will hit schools in two years time.

The decline is attributed to several factors: poor pay; the tarnished image of the teaching profession; a perception that there are no jobs or job security; bigger classes and workloads; no money for equipment and books; limited bursaries, and unsafe environments.

"We will have a major teacher supply crisis on our hands," says Albert Weideman, education professor at the University of the Western Cape.

He says the oversupply of teachers is a myth. Last year the country faced a shortage of about 600 secondary teachers, almost double the figure forecast in the 1995 National Teacher Education Audit.

By next year, says Weideman, the shortage may be substantially higher than the 4 064 forecast, and by 2003, the country will face a crisis.

It is made worse by other problems, including:

**Government's financially driven trimming of the teacher core;

**A decision to retrain an estimated 100 200 underqualified teachers, rather than recruit new entrants;

**A growing HIV/AIDS crisis in the teacher population; and

**"Natural attrition" as teachers die, retire or leave the profession.

Experts warn that the subjects worst hit will be maths, science and technology. This will affect the introduction of the outcomes-based Curriculum 2005, the further education and training policy and the future training of teachers.

The Durban College of Education had room for 100 students last year, but found only 60 suitable candidates, and the Johannesburg College of Education could have enrolled 300, but found only 265 students.

In the Northern Province, applications to the Giyani College of Education have dropped from 4 000 in 1994/95 to about 700.

Universities experience a similar trend. At Wits numbers have halved since 1994; at Unisa they have dropped by 20 percent and at the University of Durban-Westville only about 50 students applied this year compared to 300 in 1994/5.

Dr Jane Hofmeyr, co-author of the 1995 teacher audit and national director of the Independent Schools Council, says the audit predicted a shortfall in high school teachers.

"We found that the largest number of children in the population were 10 to 14 years old then. They are now moving to high schools.

"The projected shortage will hit schools in 2001, but maybe even from 2000," Hofmeyr says.

But Professor Jonathan Jansen of the University of Durban-Westville denies there will be a crisis.

He says limited data on the number of teachers with HIV/AIDS makes long-term predictions difficult.

He also says it is a myth that there is a shortage of maths and science teachers.

A survey conducted in KwaZulu-Natal two years ago found that 80 percent of maths and science teacher graduates taught English and history.

The government encourages maths and science teacher training through bursary schemes and by enrolling only students in the natural sciences at some institutions.

But colleges say matric students interested in maths and science are snapped up by the private sector.

A programme in the Northern Province to produce maths and science teachers hoped to attract 100 candidates. But last year it had only 40 first-year students and this year only 10. The expected shortfall will also affect other subjects such as African languages.

The national Department of Education failed to respond to requests for comment.

Its reduction in teaching colleges - from 105 in 1994 to 10 to 15 in the next few years - is taking its toll on institutions which don't develop programmes in line with Curriculum 2005 because they face closure.

Basil May of the Committee of College of Education Rectors of South Africa, says if the curriculum works well, there will, in fact, be an increased need for teachers.

Don Pasquallie of the South African Democratic Teachers' Union says schools face "having 80 to 90 pupils per classroom in the long-term" if the shortage is not dealt with.

Public and private schools have launched bursary schemes and training programmes to attract teacher training students.

"It is the route the country as a whole has to explore, otherwise we will wake up with a tremendous shock," says Hofmeyr.
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