San Francisco Chronicle - Tuesday, November 24, 1998
Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer

In a somber update issued in advance of World AIDS Day next week, health authorities at the United Nations and World Health Organization estimated 33.4 million people worldwide will be living with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, by the end of 1998.

That's a 10 percent increase from a year ago, taking into account 5.8 million new infections in 1997 and a record 2.5 million deaths. Every minute of every day, 11 people are now becoming infected with HIV somewhere around the world. AIDS is moving rapidly into rural areas on the Asian continent, destroying many African societies and claiming increasing numbers of women and children where ever the disease strikes.

"There is continuing spread of HIV nearly everywhere," said Dr. Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, one of the agencies sponsoring the new report.

Once regarded in Western countries as a disease that affected mostly gay men and intravenous drug users, in most of the world it is now steamrolling through mainstream society -- spreading to women with no risk factor other than having sex with their husbands, who then pass the virus on to their children.

This year, 2.1 million women were newly infected, according to the latest estimates. Women now account for 43 percent of all those living with HIV, up from 41 percent a year ago.

Meanwhile, 590,000 children under age 15 were counted among those who contracted the virus in 1998, or one-tenth of the total. Young people between the ages of 10 to 24 account for half of all new infections.

During a telephone briefing yesterday from London, Piot noted that about 100 million young people become sexually active each year. And an increasing number will become HIV carriers without realizing it.

The latest figures take note of the dramatic drop in AIDS-related deaths occurring in the United States and Western Europe as a result of combination drug therapies. But the drugs are far too costly to make a difference in the many poor nations of Africa and Asia, where AIDS has become a catastrophe of mind-boggling scale.

"The epidemic has not been overcome anywhere," the new report concludes. "Virtually every country in the world has seen new infections in 1998, and the epidemic is frankly out of control in many places."

Even the wealthy nations that have seen AIDS deaths decline have little cause to celebrate, officials said, noting that the proportion of the population infected with HIV is higher than ever. That's because people already infected are living longer, while the number of new infections -- 44,000 in the United States this year -- has shown no sign of decline, showing an especially ominous rise among African Americans and other minority groups.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the epicenter of the global AIDS disaster, accounts for 70 percent of all new HIV infections and 80 percent of deaths attributed to the virus in 1998. A shocking 21 million adults and 1.5 million children on the African continent are now infected.

The authorities estimate AIDS is responsible for roughly 5,500 funerals per day in Africa, ruining families along with hopes for economic development. In countries such as Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland, 20 percent to 26 percent of all those between the ages of 15 and 49 have AIDS or are carrying the AIDS virus.

Piot offered scant hopes for any improvement next year in the global AIDS picture, despite prospects for fewer deaths in the United States and Western Europe. Instead, he predicted a shifting pattern of infections as the virus spreads into new territories.

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