South African Press Association - September 20, 2004

"On the basis of figures provided in the report, a conservative estimate points to more than five million Aids-related deaths by 2011.

"By 2021 this figure could be as high as nine to 10 million," according to Professor Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research at the University of South Africa.

Van Aardt's report A Projection Of The South African Population, 2001 to 2021" shows the total number of Aids-related deaths a year between 2007 to 2011 was expected to exceed 500 000 per year.

'This figure could be as high as nine to 10 million'

HIV and Aids will particularly impact the population growth levels of blacks and coloureds in the next seven years.

"Among the African population group there appears to be a greater than 50 percent growth in the number of deaths during the period 2001 to 2008, while the annual number of deaths among the coloured population is expected to grow by more than 80 percent during the period 2001 to 2014."

Van Aardt's analysis showed "a complex combination of HIV and Aids and population ageing" will influence deaths in the white population.

This, "together with economic factors such as higher levels of unemployment, a greater per capita incidence of poverty and a lower level of access to private health care facilities for whites will jointly give rise to a nearly 50 percent increase in the annual number of deaths during the period 2001 to 2009."

The Asian/Indian population would not be significantly affected by HIV and Aids. Instead an ageing population would lead to an annual increase in deaths from less than 9000 in 2001 to slightly more than 12 700 by 2021.

South Africa's population is expected to reach 50,9 million in 2021, growing from 45,4 million in 2001.

Van Aardt found black people are expected to make up 79,9 percent of the total population in 2021, up from 77,7 percent in 2001.

Whites will decrease from 11,5 percent to 9,4 percent over the same period, while Asians/Indians at 2,4 percent and coloureds at 8,4 percent remain fairly constant.

All four population groups are expected to show high levels of ageing.

"The population of 66 years and older in the African population group is expected to grow by 81 percent over the projection period, that of the Asian population group by 120 percent, the coloured old-age population by 104 percent and the aged white population by 52 percent."

The growth rate of the black population would decline to about 0,42 percent by 2009.

"Thereafter it is expected to increase again as the number of HIV and Aids-related deaths among members of this population group tapers and declines."

The black, Asian and coloured populations were expected to grow, while the white population would shrink with a negative population growth of about 0,41 percent a year.

All population groups would show a decrease in the number of births each year.
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