Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2008. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Reuters NewMedia - October 30, 2008
Shapi Shacinda Shapi Shacinda

A senior intelligence official said troops would be placed on high alert after the polls close to prevent unrest, although campaigning in the stable and increasingly prosperous southern African nation has been peaceful.

The election has been generally peaceful but there were some instances of voting irregularities, the country's largest independent election monitoring group said.

The Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP) also said there were some issues regarding proper verification and identification of voters.

The winner faces the formidable task of matching Mwanawasa's strong record of fiscal discipline, praised by Western donors, and of cracking down on corruption. Mwanawasa, who led Zambia out of an economic slump, died from a stroke in August

Acting President Rupiah Banda, a prominent businessman with wide government experience, has campaigned as a steady hand who can keep Mwanawasa's business-friendly policies going in the world's 10th largest copper producer.

His main challenger Michael Sata, leader of the opposition Patriotic Front, portrays himself as a champion of the poor.

Sata, voting in the capital Lusaka, reiterated accusations he first made two weeks ago that the ruling Movement for Multi-Party Democracy planned to rig the vote.

"I have never seen this type of panicking and this is because they have rigged the election. They have rigged the election in favor of Rupiah Banda. It is the first time that the army commander who is supposed to protect people is predicting violence," Sata said.

The army chief said on Wednesday that election-related violence would not be tolerated.

Although the vote is seen as a test of Zambia's commitment to multi-party democracy, restored in 1990 after 18 years of one-party rule under Kenneth Kaunda, neither Banda nor Sata is expected to reshape the political landscape dramatically.

The polls were due to close at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) and results were expected on Friday.

NO DRAMATIC CHANGES

The only published opinion poll, released by the African market information group Steadman, showed Sata with 46 percent support, well ahead of Banda with 32 percent. Sata narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election to Mwanawasa.

Both candidates have vowed to take on the nation's major challenges. Sixty-five percent of its 12 million people live on less than $1 a day and more than 1 million are HIV-positive.

Banda is hoping to benefit from Zambia's relative prosperity as well as Mwanawasa's enduring popularity. The economy has grown at an average of 5 percent per year since 2002, boosted by what had been a sharp rise in world commodity prices.

Inflation has fallen from more than 200 percent in 1991 to about 14 percent.

Those successes are music to the ears of middle class voters, who may be the key to the election. Sata had difficulty making inroads with this group in the 2006 election, when some voters were turned off by his strident populism.

"I voted for someone who shows respect to the people and has a good economic program for the country," said Benjamin Musonda, a 32-year-old electrical engineer and Banda supporter.

London-based consultancy Control Risks said it may be difficult for Zambia to maintain tight economic management.

"With the current sharp downturn in commodity prices and withdrawals by portfolio investors as a result of the financial crisis, fiscal discipline will face a serious test," said Laura Morrison, its associate analyst for sub-Saharan Africa.

"And key long-term initiatives such as infrastructure development and economic diversification will suffer."

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