Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2005. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Reuters NewMedia - November 10, 2005

"It said they were murderers," said Anachkova, a retired cook. "I cried all night. You have heard the phrase 'a broken heart'? I know what it means.

"My heart has ached ever since," she told Reuters from her modest two-room apartment in a Sofia suburb.

Last year, the court sentenced the nurses and a Palestinian doctor colleague to death, intensifying a standoff that has threatened Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's efforts to renew ties with the West after decades in isolation.

Bulgaria and its allies, the European Union and the United States, condemned the verdicts, pointing to allegations that the nurses were tortured to extract confessions and to expert medical testimony indicating they were not present when the epidemic broke out.

However, in the Mediterranean port of Benghazi, where Libya says at least 50 of the children have died of AIDS, the victims' families have demanded vengeance.

In custody since 1999, the nurses have what may be a last chance to escape a firing squad on November 15, when the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a final appeal and either uphold the verdicts or call a retrial.

The date has already been pushed back once though, and analysts say a quick solution this time is also unlikely.

With a risk of domestic unrest in Benghazi if the nurses are freed -- the Mediterranean port is a bastion of anti-Gaddafi dissent -- the court is likely to uphold the guilty verdicts, the analysts say.

However, Gaddafi faces what the West says is a mountain of evidence showing the nurses are innocent and he has too much at stake on the international stage to carry out the executions.

"He therefore has an impossible circle to square," said George Joffe, who lectures on the Middle East and North Africa at Cambridge University's Center for International Studies.

"If the court simply accepts the evidence, it would have to release the nurses...which would enrage the local population and might spark off violence. If Gaddafi can, on the other hand, find a way out, it would please everyone."

PARIAH-STATE IMAGE

Libya has tried to shed its pariah-state image since 2003 and is trying to draw foreign investment into what analysts say is an under-exploited oil source right on Europe's doorstep.

Tripoli abandoned its pursuit of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in 2003. It also took responsibility for bomb attacks against French, British and German targets and agreed to pay compensation to the victims' families.

In turn, Washington ended a trade embargo and Gaddafi, shunned for most of his 35-year rule, has received overtures from countries such as Britain, France and Italy, which are eager to improve ties with Africa's second largest oil producer.

However, the nurses' case threatens to reverse the thaw.

Although poor and small, ex-communist Bulgaria joined NATO last year and is aiming for EU entry in 2007. Its new allies back the nurses, who say they were framed to deflect blame from Libya's dilapidated health sector.

AIDS expert Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the HIV virus, has said the outbreak began before the nurses arrived at the hospital and was most likely caused by poor hygiene.

In spite of these discrepancies, Libyan authorities have stood by the court, and the victims' families have demanded an end to delays so the executions can be carried out.

"The death penalty will convince the families the murderers have drunk of the same poison glass that killed their children," said Idriss Lagha, chairman of the Libyan Association to Aid Infected Children.

"No other sentence will satisfy them."

LOCKERBIE COMPENSATION

Tripoli has said it will consider freeing the nurses for compensation similar to the 2.7 billion euros it paid for its role in the Pan Am plane bombing over the Scottish town of Lockerbie which killed 270 people in 1988.

Islamic law allows for a victim's relatives to withdraw a death sentence if the condemned person pays reparations, but Sofia has rejected any type of payout, saying it would amount to a false admission of guilt.

The EU disagrees with the verdicts, but it is loath to see Libya slip back into the diplomatic wilderness and is leading talks to find a way for Tripoli to get out of the quagmire.

Brussels is putting together an aid package, including medical supplies, training, and treatment at European hospitals for the children, and has already provided some measures.

The moves may be bearing fruit. On Thursday Gaddafi's influential son told Reuters he personally did not believe the nurses were guilty but that appeasing the families of the victims was crucial for a solution.

"The most important thing is to find an urgent settlement with the families of the victims. This is the core issue in order to find light at the end of the tunnel," said Saif al-Islam, whose charity is working with the EU and Bulgaria to provide aid to the children.

So far, however, Sofia and Brussels have strictly avoided labeling any aid effort as compensation.

In spite of reports in British and Arab newspapers that a deal may be imminent, experts say it is much more likely the court will have to buy more time at next Tuesday's hearing.

"The Libyans will have to push this as far as they can, right up until the point when it looks like the executions are inevitable," said Joffe. "And then, if there is no evidence of concessions, Gaddafi will have to step in and solve it."

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