Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2001. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Reuters NewMedia - Thursday March 22, 2001
Steven Swindells

The bleak assessment came after Pretoria earlier this week released data that showed 4.7 million South Africans, or one in nine of the population, were living with the deadly disease.

"South Africa has the highest number of people living with AIDS. Eventually China and India will surpass South Africa but the epidemic is only just starting there," Richard Delate, spokesman for UNAIDS, told Reuters. The U.N. figures came amid a legal battle over anti-AIDS drugs.

The world's biggest drug firms have sought to strike down South African legislation that would allow Pretoria to import generic or "copycat" medicines.

AIDS activists have criticized the 39 drug firms for putting profits ahead of lives. The industry contends that the legislation would infringe its patent rights and threatened future funding and research into drugs.

India, the world's second most populous country with one billion people, has 3.8 million people with HIV-AIDS, lower than South Africa, which has a total population of just 43 million.

South Africa's neighbor Botswana has the world's highest HIV-infection rate as a percentage of population with more than a third of adults HIV-positive.

South Africa is at the epicenter of the AIDS epidemic that has swept through sub-Saharan Africa where more than 25 million people are living with the disease.

AIDS threatens to undermine the continent's social fabric, leaving hundreds of thousands of orphans who lose at least one parent to HIV-AIDS. It also destroys development.

UNAIDS has previously warned that the epidemic may cut South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) by 17 percent by the end of the decade and wipe $22 billion off the national economy.

The Development Bank of Southern Africa forecasts that South Africa's population will contract by 2016 as annual AIDS-related deaths exceed births.

Aids Cases Seen Higher

The South African health ministry on Tuesday unveiled the results of its antenatal survey which pointed to 500,000 more people contracting HIV last year from 4.2 million in 1999, a rise of 12 percent.

But experts said the number of people living with HIV-AIDS could be higher given the limited parameters of the government's survey of pregnant mothers at public clinics.

The antenatal survey extrapolates prevalence rates among pregnant women to the national population.

"Our models indicate 5.35-5.4 million with HIV-AIDS...rising to as many as 6.5-7.0 million over the next ten years," said University of Cape Town actuarial science professor Rob Dorrington who incorporates rates among people over 50 and babies in his modeling.

AIDS deaths are expected to rise sharply from around 120,000 last year to an annual 635,000 in 2010, according to AIDS campaign group Love Life.

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