Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1998. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Reuters NewMedia - Monday November 30, 1998
Christiaan Virant

Speaking on the eve of World AIDS Day, disease specialists from China and abroad added that the growth of prostitution also threatened to spread HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) from high-risk fringe groups to the general public. "HIV cases will increase dramatically in the next few years," said Wu Zunyou, an AIDS expert at the Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine.

His dire prediction was echoed by a senior Beijing-based World Health Organization (WHO) official.

"If no action is taken, if there is not active education, there could be 10 million HIV cases by the year 2010," said WHO technical officer Alan Schnur. In early November, China's Ministry of Health said the country had 11,170 confirmed HIV cases. Of those infected 338 had developed full-blown AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) and 184 had already died.

But health officials warned the actual number of HIV patients could be as high as 300,000, since only high-risk groups such as prostitutes, drug addicts and blood donors have been tested.

The ministry also predicted that the number of HIV cases would top 1 million by the year 2000 if effective action is not taken.

Both Wu and Schnur blamed the looming crisis on the lack of education about HIV. "Ordinary people are short of knowledge about AIDS," Wu said.

"Half of them believe shaking hands or eating together could transmit HIV and 60-70 percent believe a mosquito bite would infect them with the virus," he added.

The two experts said a surge in the number of intravenous drug users and the growing acceptance of prostitution threatened to spread the disease to the general public.

At present, nearly 70 percent of China's HIV carriers are drug users, Wu said. Drug use, endemic among prostitutes, is on the rise, he added, citing Ministry of Public Security statistics.

"If we can control the AIDS epidemic among drug users, it may be possible to control the spread of AIDS in the entire society," Wu said.

China will mark World AIDS Day Tuesday by kicking off a nationwide program aimed at curbing HIV transmission by 2010.

The plan focuses on education and targets high-risk groups with a multi-media traveling exhibition aimed at fostering AIDS awareness.

Schnur said the WHO was pleased with China's efforts to boost understanding of the disease, but cautioned that results would be slow in coming.

"Educating 1.2 billion people takes time," he said.
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