Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1997. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Reuters NewMedia, Inc. - Sunday October 26, 11:50 PM GMT
Ruben Alabastro

Unless Asia wakes up and tackles the AIDS threat now, the region could suffer "a tragedy of historic proportions for Asia's billions," said Peter Piot, executive director of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS).

Piot delivered his warning at an international congress in Manila held to discuss how to check the spread of the disease in the Asia-Pacific region. About 3,000 experts from 65 nations are attending.

"In absolute numbers, it's going to happen in a few years' time," Piot told a news conference when asked how soon Asia would surpass sub-Saharan Africa in the numbers of people infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which causes Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS).

He said this should come as no surprise because of the huge populations of Asian countries like China, Indonesia and India.

"This is a historic responsibility of the leaders of this region not to let that happen," he said.

He estimated that up to seven million Asians, including between three and five million people in India, may now be HIV carriers and the number is projected to double by the year 2000.

In comparison, about 14 million Africans now live with either HIV or AIDS, he said.

Globally, some 23 million people were afflicted with HIV or AIDS as of end 1996, of whom 12.6 million were men, 9.2 million were women and 833,000 were children.

"One of the biggest dangers is this perception in many countries that the epidemic is over because there is combination therapy which is quite effective in many people and has led to a decline in mortality in many Western ocuntries," he said.

Piot was referring to a cocktail of drugs developed in the West that has helped check the spread of the HIV virus in a person's body.

"There is still a long way to go," he said. "They do not offer a cure. They are very expensive. They have toxic side effects. And they do not always work."

While Australia and Thailand have checked the progress of the epidemic, overall, the region is fast becoming the world leader in HIV infections, he said.

He said church groups, including the Roman Catholic Church, which opposes the use of condoms, had a stake in the fight.

"When it's a matter of survival or death, I cannot imagine any religion who would like to lose all its followers because of this epidemic," he said.

"You can't expect the cardinals to promote the condom but I expect them not to be an obstacle."

Piot said an unchecked AIDS epidemic in Asia would also have a big impact on the region's economies, in terms of huge medical costs, productivity losses and loss of markets.

Studies show that by the year 2005 Indonesia would be spending more than one-third of its health budget on AIDS treatment. Cambodia, one of the countries hardest hit by HIV with an estimated 117,000 cases this year, would also pay heavily.

"In 10 years' time, there would be 200,000 AIDS cases and over 180,000 deaths (in Cambodia), generating a total loss of $2.8 billion," he said.

Efforts to curb the epidemic in Cambodia have been hampered by military conflict and political turmoil, he said.

He said infections could also spread dramatically in hina. Official Chinese estimates project HIV/AIDS cases rising to 1.2 million by the year 2000 from the current 400,000, he said.

"As elsewhere in Asia and the Pacific, where the tiger economies are bringing in new wealth, the potential also exists for an acceleration of the epidemic," Piot said.

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