Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2008. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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New Vision (Kampala) - December 7, 2008
Dick Muhwezi**
Prevalence may also be expressed as a proportion, the number of people infected with the disease as a fraction of the total population in the country at that time giving us a snapshot of the disease burden in the population.
Therefore, an HIV prevalence rate of 6.4% in 2008 for Uganda implies that six out of every one hundred Ugandans are HIV positive; about 1.9 million Ugandans assuming the population of Uganda is 30 million.
For any disease, there are only two ways of reducing prevalence; by getting cured of the disease and by dying of it. This leaves only the latter as the available option in case of HIV whose cure still eludes us all. Though there are a few unverified claims from a some practitioners and religious leaders that they can heal HIV/AIDS.
Uganda has been commended for having reduced the HIV prevalence rate from 30% in the past to just over 6% today. This would mean that a smaller proportion of the population of Uganda is HIV infected.
This achievement is amplified by the existence of more efficient HIV testing methods that are more accessible to the population today than was the case in the eighties.
The reduction in prevalence rate may not always mean that fewer people are living with the virus today than in the eighties given the high population growth rate of 3.2% per annum, the third highest in the World after Yemen at 3.5% and Niger at 3.4%, according to the Population Secretariat. A growth rate of 3.2% means that Uganda's population increases by about one million people annually.
There must be more people living with HIV today than in the eighties due to the continued spread of the infection estimated at 135,000 people annually and the higher survival rates of those infected especially in this era of anti retroviral therapy, and this number is bound to increase with time. Since there is no cure, the only way Uganda can reduce the prevalence of HIV is by allowing the infected with HIV to progress to AIDS and eventually die, a clear failure for HIV programmes in Uganda.
That is why reducing prevalence of HIV has never been and should never be the objective of the Government and other HIV control programmes not until a cure is discovered.
The Government and other HIV programmes instead focus their efforts on increasing access to HIV counselling and testing and availing people living with HIV all the necessary information, care, support and treatment. This will enable them live positively, act as advocates to prevent further spread of HIV and to demystify HIV in their communities.
The lower HIV prevalence rate in 2008 as compared to the eighties does not mean that there is less HIV around us but only means that a smaller proportion of Ugandans is HIV infected in 2008 as compared to the eighties.
The increase in the number of people living with HIV means that the probability of living close to an HIV infected person is higher today than it was in the eighties because there are more people living with HIV in Uganda today than there were in the eighties and yet the size of the country has remained constant; and this probability fluctuates with your location around the country.
This is the time to take all precautions to ensure that we neither spread HIV to the next person nor become one of the 370 Ugandans infected daily.
** The writer is centre manager TASO Entebbe
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Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 2008. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.
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