Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2008. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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New Vision (Kampala) - November 26, 2008
Raymond Baguma
The report indicates that the average GDP growth will reduce by 6.2% to 5% a year from 2008 to 2016. This is 1.2% yearly.
The study assesses the macroeconomic impact of the disease on Uganda.
Addressing journalists at the Media Centre in Kampala on Thursday, Dr. Kihumuro Apuuli, the Uganda AIDS Commission (UAC) director general, said the rate of infection had been increasing over the last three years.
As a result, Apuuli said, the number of people in need of ARVs would increase and the country may never meet its treatment targets.
"The solution is to stop new infections through prevention. If treatment is scaled up, the anticipated GDP fall will be prevented," he said.
The report was released by Ministry of Finance and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in October.
It says provision of anti- retroviral treatment to the population can contribute about a 0.6% growth to the GDP every year.
It shows that spending on prevention is more cost-effective than treatment.
The HIV/AIDS prevention efforts, however, are in the reverse gear. About 130,000 new HIV infections are occurring every year, according to the UAC. Only 156,000 people are accessing ARVs, yet 356,000 need the treatment.
"Over the last four years, a mistake was made to shift focus to treatment, rather than prevention. A big chunk of money is allocated to drugs," Kihumuro said.
The worst hit sectors are fishing, with a prevalence of 20.3%, tourism and hotels with about 10%, agriculture and manufacturing.
The study, however, projects that donor financing for ARVs is likely to boost the local exchange rate and transfer wealth.
If Uganda has to increase local funding for HIV/AIDS activities, it says, the Government will have to increase taxes, which could affect the economy.
It estimates the population to grow to 64.5 million by 2025 in a no-AIDS scenario, and to 58.8 million with AIDS and no treatment.
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