Los Angeles Times - Tuesday, July 8, 2003
Robin Wright, Edwin Chen, Los Angeles Times

The AIDS pandemic and the gradual spread of freedom, two issues that are gripping the continent and driving the president's trip, have become more important considerations in the Bush administration's foreign policy since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"The Bush administration's new strategic vision is trying to identify the areas where terrorism can take root or hide" or receive financial or operational assistance, said Pauline Baker, president of the Fund for Peace in Washington. "And Africa is wide open because there are so many failed or failing states without an ability to control borders, monitor financial transactions or control resources like diamonds or timber that is used for money laundering."

Hours before the president's departure Monday night, the administration was still working out details for deploying a small number of troops to war- torn Liberia. Fourteen years of civil war in Liberia have spawned instability or conflict in neighboring Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Both the United Nations and West African countries have pushed hard for U.S. involvement in a military mission in Liberia to help ensure that a temporary cease-fire produces a political transition and eventual peace.

Liberia was founded in the mid-1800s by freed American slaves, and the two nations historically have had close relations.

A 32-man U.S. military assessment team landed by helicopter at the U.S. Embassy in Monrovia, Liberia's capital, Monday to assess the security situation and humanitarian needs.

Nearly one-third of Liberia's 3 million people have been displaced since rebels took up arms against President Charles Taylor in the latest round of fighting in 1999.

Intense diplomatic contacts continued Monday as well. U.S. officials talked with the United Nations and members of the Economic Community of West African States, the two organizations that would take the lead in any military deployment in Liberia.

TAYLOR SAYS HE'LL LEAVE

In two interviews with the Associated Press on Monday, Taylor said he would fulfill his pledge to leave Liberia and accept asylum in Nigeria upon the arrival of an international force.

"If one U.S. Marine stood on Broad Street and blew a whistle, 'time out,' then there would be peace," Taylor said. "When they arrive, bingo, I would be out of here in a jiffy."

But according to the New York Times, he added a surprising coda to his promise to step down, calling his exile a brief cooling-off period before he returns to Liberian politics.

The status of a war crimes indictment against Taylor by a U.N.-backed court in Sierra Leone remains undetermined and could complicate his exit.

The Liberian leader has sought guarantees that he would not be tried on charges of fomenting civil war if he leaves.

Liberia is likely to remain a subtext -- and could steal the headlines -- throughout Bush's five-day tour of Senegal, South Africa, Botswana, Uganda and Nigeria.

"This trip and other initiatives were conceived as an attempt by Bush to show the compassionate side of the administration, that foreign policy is not dictated by the protection of narrow U.S. interests but is shaped by broader concerns about humanity," said Marina Ottaway, an Africa expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "But the crisis in Liberia threatens to destroy the impact of the trip."

Bush hopes to emphasize unfolding success stories on a troubled continent while offering aid and preaching a message of hope through political and economic change.

AIDS INITIATIVE

The president plans to tout a $15 billion global AIDS initiative, along with a $10 billion "Millennium Challenge Account" to provide aid to developing nations that take specific actions to combat poverty and corruption while promoting human rights and a free society.

Bush also will cite a $100 million counterterrorism program for East Africa.

And he wants to build on the successes of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a Clinton-era initiative that has liberalized U.S. trade and investment with 38 sub-Saharan nations.

Since its enactment, clothing imports from Africa have leaped from $600 million in 1999 to $1.1 billion last year.

Despite many pledges of help, Bush will bring few, if any, "deliverables," in the diplomatic parlance for presidential largesse. Congress has yet to appropriate funds for the AIDS initiative, and the Millennium account is still unfunded altogether.

CHANGE OF EMPHASIS

Still, Bush's trip to Africa signals a significant shift in his views. During the 2000 presidential campaign, Bush declared that Africa would rank low on his list of international priorities.

The elevation of Africa on the presidential agenda is testament to the influence of Bush's top two foreign policy advisers, Secretary of State Colin Powell and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. Both have been strong advocates within the administration of developing African initiatives.

Bush's itinerary reflects the revived agenda. Senegal is among the countries that pioneered democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.

In 1989, Botswana and Mauritius were the only African nations considered fully democratic. According to a 2002 study by the nonprofit organization Freedom House, nine African nations are free and 19 more are partly free.

Bush's next two stops, South Africa and Botswana, are the continent's economic powerhouses. In South Africa, an estimated 13 percent of its 43.2 million people live in "First World" conditions.

BUSH WON'T MEET MANDELA

Unlike many world leaders who visit South Africa, Bush will not meet with revered statesman Nelson Mandela, an outspoken critic of the war in Iraq who has called Bush a leader "who cannot think clearly."

Botswana's economic growth rate has averaged over 7 percent in the past two decades, among the highest in the developing world.

Yet both South Africa and Botswana are being ravaged by AIDS.

In Uganda, Bush plans to hail that nation's social and human rights progress since the dark days of Idi Amin, a dictator whose henchmen killed untold numbers of Ugandans during his eight-year reign of terror, which ended in 1979. Today, Uganda's war on AIDS is widely celebrated as a model.

Bush's final stop is Nigeria, a large, oil-rich nation.

Chronicle news services contributed to this report.

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