Inter Press Service - October 27, 2004
Analysis by Moyiga Nduru

But as the campaign enters its final week, the continent has received even less attention than some might have hoped.

In the first of three debates between the two candidates, President George W. Bush and Democratic Party challenger John Kerry, the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur was given a passing mention. For the most part, however, the focus stayed on the wisdom of the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq.

Nonetheless, certain observers believe Africa will be less easily sidelined after Nov. 2.

"There are areas on the African continent which are of critical importance to the United States," Claude Kabemba of the Johannesburg-based Electoral Institute of Southern Africa told IPS. "I don't buy into the argument that Africa doesn't matter in the U.S. foreign policy."

An issue that is likely to prove decisive in this regard is the American need for African oil.

The U.S. currently imports 16 percent of its oil from sub-Saharan Africa. A 2001 report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, 'Global Trends 2015', forecast that by 2015 a quarter of American fuel would come from Africa, surpassing the percentage imported from the Persian Gulf.

In addition, Africa produces a substantial portion of the world's uranium, a key ingredient in nuclear weapons and reactors. With concerns about the future development of nuclear weapons in Iran - and the possible proliferation of such weapons in North Korea - this is no small matter.

Events in Africa are also of significance as concerns the threat posed by international terrorists. As the experience of Somalia has reportedly shown, failed states can provide havens for terrorists.

"I think after Sep. 11 it's in the interests of the United States to interact with Africa and strengthen democracy - and boost Africa's capacity to keep away terrorists," Dan Semuga, a researcher at the University of South Africa, said in an interview with IPS.

Osama bin Laden, leader of al-Qaeda and the alleged mastermind of the Sep. 11 terror attacks on New York and Washington, lived in Sudan between 1991 and 1996.

Venezuelan-born terrorist Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, more commonly known as Carlos the Jackal, also found a home in Khartoum. In 1994 he was extradited to Paris for planning a series of bombings, kidnappings and hijackings across Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s.

The danger that terrorist activity in Africa presents to the U.S. has not been restricted to the fact that bin Laden and others have found shelter on the continent.

In 1998, the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed. About three months ago, Pakistani authorities arrested a Tanzanian member of al-Qaeda - Ahmed Khalfan Ghailan - who is accused of playing a key role in planning these attacks.

While the U.S. presidential candidates may not have said much about Africa, many Africans have decided thoughts on who should win next week's poll.

"I think the impact of Bush winning will be negative for Africa; the Bush administration's staying out of international fora does not look good. But Democrats may be approachable and willing for engagement," Kabemba said.

In 2001, the U.S. withdrew from the third United Nations World Conference Against Racism that was held in the South African port city of Durban. The walkout was in protest against an alleged victimization of Israel as concerned its treatment of the Palestinians.

The past four years have seen the Bush administration take a number of initiatives on Africa - most notably the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which set aside almost ten billion dollars in new funding to fight the HIV pandemic.

Sub-Saharan Africa has just over 10 percent of the world's population, but is home to almost two-thirds of people living with HIV - some 25 million, according to the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS.

However, critics accuse the U.S. government of bowing to Christian elements of its support base by placing undue emphasis on abstinence-based programmes in the allocation of PEPFAR funds.

The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act, signed into law by Bush in 2002, also increased subsidies for U.S. farmers - to the detriment of African producers. This did not endear the American head of state to many in Africa. Nor has his refusal to sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Washington says it fears that the court may be used to mount mischievous prosecutions against U.S. military and political officials. Supporters of the ICC claim safeguards have been built into the court's operating procedures to prevent this from happening.

In addition, the U.S. withdrawal in 2001 from the 1997 Kyoto protocol - which aims to reduce greenhouse emissions - has earned it bad press in Africa. Bush claimed that adhering to the protocol would prove too costly for the U.S., and that developing countries should take greater responsibility for emissions reduction.

"I think Africans will be inclined for a Kerry leadership. If Bush wins it will be a very assertive and dominant administration. Africans fear that," says Kabemba.

But Semuga has a different view, saying Bush offers the best hope for efforts to combat global terrorism: "One may disagree with him, but Bush seems principled and doesn't waver in what he strongly believes in."

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