Inter Press Service - August 19, 2004
Eli Clifton

While there has been a decline in fertility rates in parts of Latin America and Asia, growth rates in Africa and other areas of Asia are booming at dangerously high levels, says demographer Carl Haub of the Population Research Bureau (PRB), which produced the report.

"A major question mark is how to get the 80 percent of rural Indians to have just two children," Haub said in an interview with IPS.

PRB's projection of population in 2050 shows India topping the list at 1.6 billion people; followed by China, 1.4 billion; the United States, 420 million; Indonesia, 308 million; and Nigeria at 307 million.

Forty"four percent of sub"Saharan Africa's population is below age 15, compared to 33 percent in Asia (less China), 32 percent in Latin America and only 17 percent in Europe, adds the '2004 World Population Data Sheet', compiled by PRB, a Washington, DC"based non"profit organisation.

To put the contrast in a country"specific context, in Japan, only 14 percent of the population is younger than age 15 and 19 percent is above age 65, while nearly one"half of Nigeria's population is below 15, and only three percent is above age 65, according to the report.

Notably, Russia, with a population of 144 million, and Japan, at 128 million today, are projected to fall off the list of the world's 10 largest countries by 2050.

Projections for 2050 also show Europe as the only region whose population will decline from its 2004 level of 728 million people "" to 668 million in 2050.

"The extreme aging (in Europe) will dwindle the number of people in the consumer and labour forces in Europe - leading to only one thing, immigration," according to Haub.

Birth rates also reveal dramatic regional differences with, in some countries in the Middle East and Africa, women averaging six to eight births in their lifetimes compared to Europe, where the average is less than two children, said PRB.

Niger leads with a birth rate of eight children per woman, while Poland comes in last at 1.2 children per woman.

The United States has the highest birth rates among developed countries - two children per woman.

Family planning is becoming more evident in developing countries in Latin America and the Caribbean but continues to fall short in sub-Saharan Africa, according to PRB.

Sixty-two percent of women in Latin America use a modern method of family planning (such as the pill, IUD, condom and sterilisation), compared to 43 percent in Asia (less China) and only 14 percent in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Rwanda, only four percent of women practise a modern method of family planning, compared to at least 70 percent in Brazil, the report documented.

With a population of 1.3 billion, China tops the current list of the world's largest countries; followed by India, 1.1 billion people; the United States, 294 million; Indonesia, 219 million; and Brazil, population 179 million, according to PRB data.

The report also details the number of people worldwide living with HIV/AIDS, based on estimates from UNAIDS. Globally the number has increased to 1.1 percent of adults, ages 15 to 49 at the end of 2003, up from 1.0 percent two years before.

HIV/AIDS prevalence in all of Africa declined from 7.6 percent to 7.5 percent from 2001 to 2003, with 14 countries experiencing a decline, led by Kenya and Uganda. Prevalence showed no change in 24 of the continent's nations, said the report.

"Uganda and Kenya show that (lowering HIV/AIDS rates) can be done," said Haub.

Outside of Africa, Haiti topped the list for HIV/AIDS prevalence at 5.6 percent; followed by Trinidad and Tobago, 3.2 percent; Bahamas, 3.0 percent; Cambodia, 2.6 percent; and Guyana, 2.5 percent.

About 2.9 million adults and children died from AIDS in 2003, and the number of children orphaned by the disease rose from 11.5 million in 2001 to 15 million in 2003, according to UNAIDS.

The number of people living worldwide with the disease has reached 38 million - a hike from 35 million in 2001 - with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for just over 25 million.

Of the 6.5 million people with HIV/AIDS in South/Southeast Asia, 5.1 million live in India, said the report.

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+Population Reference Bureau (http://www.prb.org)

+UNAIDS (http://www.unaids.org/)

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