Inter Press Service - Monday, November 30, 1998
Gumisai Mutume

In a decade, according to the latest projections, almost a quarter of South Africa's population will be infected with AIDS.

"... The spread of HIV/AIDS represents a challenge to all South Africans, threatening to offset recent gains in human development," says the first HIV/AIDS South African Human Development Report released on Monday.

"South Africa is currently experiencing one of the most rapidly progressing HIV epidemics in the world. HIV prevalence among pre-natal clinic attendees has increased 20-fold over the past eight years ..."

It is estimated that South Africa now has more HIV-infected people than any other country, except India. More than 3.2 million people in South Africa are said to infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which causes AIDS.

South Africa presents a fertile ground for the spread of the disease, because of its high levels of poverty and inequality, its historical migrant labour system, and a lack of adequate access to basic services by the majority of the people.

"The spread of HIV and AIDS in South Africa is fuelled by the apartheid legacy of the migrant labour system, the accompanying spread of sexually transmitted diseases and the subordinate status of women," says the report sponsored by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and UNAIDS.

This year alone, more than 168,000 people will die of AIDS and life expectancy may fall from 64 to 40 in the next 10 years.

"Within the next three years, 250,000 South Africans will die of AIDS annually," says Welfare Minister Geraldine Fraser- Moleketi. "The greatest impact will be felt at the household and family level."

Out of 174 countries, South Africa is ranked 89th in the UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI). The country's ranking has gradually been rising, but if the HIV epidemic is not checked, the country's HDI will be negatively affected.

"The spread of AIDS is clearly linked to poverty and poor human development," says David Whaley, UNDP's Resident Representative. "South Africa has failed to translate economic prosperity into corresponding better lives for its people." More than half of the country's 40.6 million people can be categorised as poor, with nearly a quarter living on less than one U.S. dollar per day.

Sub-Saharan Africa is at the storm's eye of the AIDS epidemic with 60 percent of the men, 80 percent of the women and 90 percent of the children infected worldwide, living in the region.

AIDS also has taken a heavy toll on some African economies. "Most projections of economic impact in African countries have suggested that a generalised AIDS epidemic will reduce GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rates by about one percent per annum," points out a department of health report 'HIV/AIDS in South Africa: The Impacts and the Priorities', also released on Monday, a day before 'World AIDS Day' on Dec. 1.

In some countries in the region at an advanced stage of the disease, the epidemic has resulted in a loss of between three and 10 years of human development.

As in the rest of the region, South African women bear the brunt of the infection."Limited choices and lack of power to negotiate safer sex can constitute a death sentence," says Whaley of UNDP.

Female headed households, known to be poorer than others in South Africa, are particularly vulnerable to the economic effects of the disease. HIV/AIDS complications are already the top cause of maternal mortality in the country. "It is high time women stand up and make sure they are protected," says Nomusa Njoko of the non-governmental group Greater Involvement of People with HIV/Aids.

"I was infected by a person who was on a mission of infecting as many women as possible and I think he is still out there carrying out his mission," Njoko adds.

Infected five years ago, she was given less than a few months to live. She has survived, she says because of positive thinking and has dedicated her life to assisting in the fight against the disease.

Last month, the government launched its first major campaign against the spread of the virus in a country where 1,500 people are infected each day.

The campaign, 'Partnership Against AIDS' drew public declarations from government, non-governmental organisations and companies to do more to curb the spread of AIDS and to offer acceptance and understanding to those infected. "We are not powerless against the epidemic," says Peter Piot Executive Director of UNAIDS. "We can make sure that the curves, projections and statistics do not end up as predicted." (END/IPS/gm/pm/98)
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