Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2005. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg) - November 2, 2005
A new counter that reflects the estimated real-time number of Aids-related deaths in South Africa has been posted on www.redribbon.co.za. The website, sponsored by Metropolitan, provides up-to-date information on HIV and Aids in South Africa, which has an estimated five million HIV-positive individuals and an estimated 1,6-million of accumulated Aids deaths.
The counter previously published on Red Ribbon reflected the total number of HIV infections that have ever occurred worldwide. This number is estimated to be more than 60-million, which comprises the 39,4-million people worldwide living with HIV at the end of 2004 (as estimated by UNAids), plus the estimated 20-million people who have died from Aids-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic.
It is impossible to know with certainty what the real statistics are because only about 15% of people in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic is the most severe, know their HIV status. UNAids indicates the levels of uncertainty in statistics of this magnitude by publishing bands within which the estimates may fall. For example, the total numbers of HIV-positive people worldwide at the end of 2004 is estimated to be between 35,9-million and 44,3-million. The accumulated HIV infections worldwide have, however, become a statistic that is simply too large to relate to.
The decision was taken by Metropolitan and Red Ribbon to replace the accumulated HIV infections worldwide with a more relevant statistic, namely accumulated Aids deaths in South Africa.
The current accumulated Aids deaths in South Africa of 1,6-million is estimated to grow to 7,6-million by 2020, according to the ASSA2002 Aids and demographic actuarial model. Since the average time from HIV infection until death from an Aids-related opportunistic infection is about 12 years in the absence of anti-retroviral treatment, it is only towards the beginning of the new millennium that the real impact of HIV is starting to hit home through Aids deaths.
Aids deaths hit hardest in economically active age groups from 20 to 49, resulting in an escalating number of orphans, child-headed households and a loss of skills.
The nature of a mature epidemic, such as the one in South Africa, is that new HIV infections are estimated to be between 400 000 and 500 000 a year and Aids deaths between 300 000 and 400 000 a year, meaning that those who die are quickly replaced by newly infected people.
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