Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg) - June 1, 2001
Charlene Smith

Global warming and its effect on the proliferation of infectious diseases has far-reaching implications for areas such as the economy, interstate trade relations and tourism.

Research indicates several bleak scenarios, including:

* The developing world will find it increasingly difficult to cope with health problems. Workforces will shrink, the education of children will become skimpier and with it the chances for the advancement of the poorer nations. Violent conflict will intensify.

* Global warming will cause more frequent floods, making diseases like cholera difficult to control; higher temperatures will see cool highlands become warmer, spreading malaria infection, as has already happened in Burundi; globalisation, allowing faster travel, will see disease move rapidly -- and increased travel restrictions.

* Agricultural methods will see dramatic revision. The European Union Agricultural Minister, Franz Fischler, gave a foretaste of new EU thinking recently when the 15 EU countries gathered to discuss mad cow disease. Fischler proposed a major move away from intensive, industrial-style farming, which uses artificial feeds and chemical pesticides. "There is a case for moving back toward farming practices that respect the environment," he said.

* A possible decline in the number of care-givers, including mothers, nurses, teachers and civil society volunteers, as many women die of Aids. And yet, those who live in privileged societies, such as those of the United States, Europe and parts of South-East Asia, will live 30 and even 40 years after retirement, which will cause grave strains on retirement benefits and pensions, increased poverty among the aged.

A United Nations report released last month shows that of 162 nations surveyed 99 have increased travel restrictions, particularly against those travelling from countries with high-risk profiles of infectious diseases, including HIV/Aids.

Britain and Australia ask whether visitors have had sex with anyone in Southern Africa in the past year. Some countries ask for HIV tests as a visa requirement. The US does not allow HIV-infected people into the country and immigration authorities can detain or isolate at US ports of entry persons showing symptoms of yellow fever, cholera, diphtheria, tuberculosis, plague, smallpox and viral haemorrhagic fevers.

Spot checks are used in international food trade controls introduced in 1994, which are being more stringently applied now. Europe and North America have seen beef sales plummet because of fears about foot and mouth and mad cow disease. Canada gave away its potato crop this year because the US blocked imports after a harmless fungus blighted the appearance of the potatoes.

According to reports the ice cap on Kilimanjaro will have disappeared within 15 years, causing possible floods in which the cholera virus will thrive. The thickness of ice at the poles is also reported to have dropped by 40%, resulting in a slow melt that saw oceans rise at least 12,5% in the 20th century.

A malaria researcher at the South African Medical Research Council says flooding makes malaria transmission easier and "coupled with HIV sees longer periods of hospitalisation and higher rates of death".

Since 1996 the incidence of malaria in South Africa has shot up from an average of 10 000 cases a year to 65 000 cases, with 410 deaths last year.

Although there is no research conducted into the cost of malaria on the South African economy, R90-million is reported to be spent on malaria control each year.

The UN intergovernmental panel on climate change noted in a report released in February that "the effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life, investment and the economy". In the 1990s severe weather caused about $40-billion damage worldwide every year, compared to about $4-billion in the 1950s.

Since 1973, according to the US National Institute of Health, at least 20 infectious diseases that had previously been under control -- such as tuberculosis, cholera and malaria -- have become more virulent.

In less than three decades since 1973, there was an outbreak of 30 new diseases, including Aids, the Ebola virus and hepatitis C -- diseases that increasingly resist medical treatment.

The miracle drug of the 20th century -- antibiotics -- has become a villain. Scientists say excessive use of antibiotics has encouraged microbial resistance, which means that many diseases resist existing treatment.

Chloroquinine, the drug of choice for years against malaria, is no longer effective in 80 of 92 countries surveyed, while penicillin is reported to have lost its effectiveness against pneumonia, meningitis and gonorrhoea.

These challenges pose huge business opportunities for health industries. But the short-sightedness of foreign funders sometimes holds back progress: Mozambique cannot implement effective DDT spraying against malaria because foreign funders will not support its use.
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