Chicago Tribune - October 20, 2002
Alex Rodriguez, Tribune foreign correspondent

Demographers project that Russia's population, now an estimated 143 million, plummets an average of about a half-million people every year. Some projections have the number of people in Russia dipping below 80 million by midcentury.

Russian leaders have groped for ways to stop the plunge. Last year, the government ordered checkups for every child younger than 18. In the Ural Mountains, officials of one city have begun rewarding parents of four or more children with monthly stipends of $31 to $47, far above the $2-per-child monthly allowance Russia now gives parents.

There are housing loans for couples based on family size, and a contest in St. Petersburg gives the parents of children born on May 27, the day of the city's tricentennial next year, a chance to win a free apartment.

None of those attempts, however, addresses the reasons for the population slide. Russians drink and smoke in excess. The nation's social services and health-care systems are in dire need of reform. And for many twenty- and thirty-something Russians influenced by a decade of Western lifestyle, having children comes a distant second to career and consumption.

"Young Russians want to live on two salaries, and they want spare time and some amusement in life," said Sergei Zakharov, director of the Demography Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "They think more about quality-of-life issues, they consume more, and the idea of the typical large Russian family is less important to them."

The first wave of census results won't be known until January, but officials are bracing for a steep drop. The country's estimated population peaked in 1992 at 148.3 million.

Seed for reform

Analysts and government officials agree that while the census may paint a gloomy portrait of a wobbly transition to a market economy, it is nevertheless crucial as the seed of reform for social services and health care.

"Reforms aimed at developing the country cannot be implemented without the knowledge of the structure and requirements of the population," Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov recently told Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency.

The census began Oct. 9 and ended Wednesday; the last one was in 1989. About 600,000 census takers were dispatched to every corner of Russia's 6.5 million square miles, at times traveling by boat or on foot to get to remote villages.

In the Siberian plains and plateaus, villages have succumbed to the economic turmoil of the 1990s and withered into ghost towns. Meanwhile, Moscow is characterized by extremes--well-connected "new Russians" who made millions during the nation's turbulent 1990s live in wealth, while about 1 million children are homeless and thousands of pensioners scrape by in one-room apartments.

Drug addiction has joined Russia's longtime struggles with alcoholism and smoking as a national health scourge. HIV transmission has soared: AIDS researchers predict 5 million Russians will be HIV-positive by 2005.

But just as troublesome to the nation's future is its drop in population, driven by a birthrate of just 1.17 per family, one of the world's lowest. About 60 percent of all pregnancies in Russia end in abortion, a figure exceeded only in Romania. If the dramatic population loss continues, demographers warn, Russia won't have enough workers to sustain major industries or maintain its aging infrastructure.

Much of Russia's economic engine operates east of the Urals in oil- and timber-rich Siberia, where low birthrates and high death rates are compounded by an exodus of labor. Wages are low, and sometimes workers go weeks without a paycheck.

"The decline in the labor force will be serious, and maybe catastrophic, to Russia," said Rostislav Kapelyushnikov, a research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations.

A shrinking labor force also spells trouble for Russia's crippled pension system. The average Russian pensioner receives $42.40 a month, an amount likely to drop as fewer working-age Russians are available to fund the nation's pension coffers.

Couples blame economy

If Russia could maintain a birthrate of about two children per household, it could stabilize its population and stave off many social and economic troubles. But many Russian couples put off having children, either because they are dedicated to careers or because they feel hamstrung by the economy.

Gennady Sankin, 45, and his wife, Marina, 30, desperately want children but cannot afford them. Marina is a nurse who has been out of work for two years, and Gennady is a former engineer who works as a security guard for $120 a month.

"If we had children, life would be a nightmare," Gennady said.

The level of government help provided to new parents also has declined. During Soviet days, when the birthrate was nearly two children per woman, mothers were given up to three years of maternity leave and paid wages for half of that time. Now a mother with a child 18 months or younger receives a monthly government allowance of about $5.30.

Just as troubling is the country's death rate. Life expectancy for women is 72 years, compared with 79 for American women. But Russian men live an average of 59 years, far below the U.S. male life expectancy of 74.

More than 60 percent of Russian men smoke, and the number of alcoholics in Russia has risen nearly a third in the last two years, according to the Health Ministry.

"Historically in Russia, men have not tried to live longer," Zakharov said. "In the Soviet days, and even now, there has been no economic incentive in living longer. It wasn't so then, and it isn't so now."

Copyright - 2002, Chicago Tribune

Improved archives! Searching Chicagotribune.com archives back to 1985 is cheaper and easier than ever. New prices for multiple articles can bring your cost as low as 30 cents an article: http://chicagotribune.com/archives
021020
CT021005

Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 2002. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.

AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All information contained on this website, including information relating to health conditions, products, and treatments, is for informational purposes only. It is often presented in summary or aggregate form. It is not meant to be a substitute for the advice provided by your own physician or other medical professionals. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.

Copyright ©1980, 2002. AEGiS. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content. .