Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1987. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
Chicago Tribune (CT) - Friday December 11, 1987
John N. Maclean, Chicago Tribune
One scientific expert after another offered varying numbers, and told the commission it was "impossible" to give more accurate numbers with today's "potentially biased" data.
It would take only a few months to get more accurate data if effective national testing were undertaken, the experts indicated. But at that point the chairman of the commission, retired Adm. James Watkins, remarked that those at high risk of AIDS don't trust government officials enough to cooperate.
"The credibility isn't there yet," Watkins said.
The commission intends to report to President Reagan by February on steps that might be taken to ensure that more reliable figures are available. Several experts appearing before the panel urged a recommendation for federal legislation guaranteeing rights such as employment and insurance benefits to those who might be identified in national testing as carrying the AIDS virus, known as HIV.
Thursday's hearing showed the persistence of a wide variety of opinion among experts over how widespread the disease has become. Dr. James Curran of the federal Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta offered the latest overall estimate of his agency, which calculates that from 945,000 to 1.4 million Americans have the AIDS virus.
"We do know fairly well about how many Americans are infected," Curran said. But he said nailing down an exact number was likely to be as time- consuming and frustrating as finding a vaccine for AIDS, which is expected to take many years.
Curran said 60 to 65 scientists in the U.S. are working on mathematical models to try to come up with answers, but they are working with "arguably bad data."
Dr. Steven Sivak of New York Medical College, who has done a statistical study of AIDS, told the panel his estimate put the upper limit for HIV infected people at 1.9 million, which he said was "not that statistically different" from the 1.4 million estimate of the Centers for Disease Control.
At that point, Sivak was brought up short by John Creedon, a member of the commission and chief executive officer of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., who said health costs certainly were different, depending on whether 1.4 million or 1.9 million people got sick from AIDS.
"Economically significant, yes; statistically significant, I'm not so sure," Sivak said.
Most of the experts stressed that the disease attacks different groups at different rates, depending on many variables.
Dr. George Rutherford of the San Francisco Public Health Department pointed to a steep drop in the rate of HIV infections among a group of homosexuals in a long-term study in San Francisco. From 1978 to 1982 the rate of infection rose to 21 percent from 1 percent.
It then dropped to 2 percent in 1983 and has continued downward since, with no new infections being reported this year.
Rutherford credited the drop mainly to a "decrease in high-risk sexual behavior" and said the finding likely was indicative of a trend among San Francisco homosexuals. But he said figures likely were far different in other cities.
The San Francisco study was conducted with homosexuals recruited for a study of hepatitis before the AIDS virus was first identified in the U.S. in 1981.
Their blood samples were frozen, so tests could be performed on samples taken before the discovery.
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