BBC News - Monday, 1 December, 2003
Briony Hale, BBC News Online business reporter

Indeed, there is growing fear that Aids will result in quite the opposite, with some companies scaling back their operations or deserting the worst-hit areas altogether.

In southern Africa the impact of Aids is already tearing apart many existing businesses and destroying the livelihoods of those who have already suffered enough.

The World Bank has recently put out the bleakest of bleak assessments of the long-term economic impact of Aids, confronting the chilling scenario of what happens when a generation of workers dies.

The Bank's report predicts that child labour could be commonplace within the next two generations, as orphans are left to fend for themselves and the traditional earners of the family die.

Even in Botswana, one of Africa's most progressive countries in terms of tackling the disease, providing free drugs to all and financial help for orphans, this pattern is starting to emerge.

Cracks in society

Children are taken out of school to look after dying relatives or sent into the fields because the adults are too weak to provide food, says Marguerite Daniel who has been researching a PhD in rural Botswana.

"It's not such a large leap from there to seeing children working in the informal sector," says Dr Tony Barnett, author of Aids in the 21st century.

People living in the capital city of Gaborone say that cracks are beginning to show at every level of society - teachers, farmers, bank clerks and post-office staff are all being lost to Aids.

There are stories that some banks are now employing three people for every two that they need.

There are stories of construction firms building flat out now on the presumption that there will be a shortage of skilled labour in five years' time.

There is the story of the local brewery who has said it will make less beer because there are fewer people to drink it.

Mobile workforces

Evidence that companies are cutting back or deserting is largely anecdotal. But it is also widely presumed to be true.

"Companies do not tend to disclose their reasoning on these issues, but it would be naive not to realise that HIV/Aids is one of the main factors that is deterring investors from coming to this part of the world," says Mokhethi Moshoeshoe, director of the African Institute of Corporate Citizenship.

"A lot of companies considering doing business in Southern Africa are finding that the risk is too high."

The trends of globalisation and outsourcing, meanwhile, make it increasingly easy for firms to increase or decrease the size of their workforces in different regions.

Head in sand syndrome

Although there is growing fear that some companies might be scaling back their efforts in some areas, it is also clear that the firms who are committed to the region are increasing their efforts to tackle the disease.

"I think that business has finally begun to wake up to the depth of the crisis and realise the extent of the impact," says Ben Plumley, the first executive director of the Global Business Coalition on Aids, now working for UNAids.

But he also acknowledges that smaller firms are still burying their heads in the sand, primarily because it is very difficult for them to afford to do anything else.

It is big business that has the money and know-how to analyse long-term risks and detail the future costs.

It is also big business which has concluded that it is more cost-effective to give their workers life-prolonging drugs than to train new workers.

These firms are the ones who will weather the storm. And their employees are amongst the lucky ones who will receive proper benefits.

Discrimination

Smaller firms, however - and their employees - are much more vulnerable.

"The smaller the business, the greater the risk from Aids," says Dr Stephen Kapunda, an economics lecturer at the University of Botswana, explaining how the illness or death of one key person can bring about the collapse of a whole firm.

"Small businesses matter because they employ people in rural areas, they provide income for some of the poorest people and especially for women," he explains.

It is also in these types of firms, often informally run, that workers are most likely to be abused or discriminated against.

Dr Kapunda describes how some bars in Gaborone employ waitresses on a temporary basis, but sack them as soon as the law requires them to be made permanent and offered sick pay.

In South Africa, Mark Hayward the head of the Aids Law project, highlights the plight of domestic workers who are frequently forced to take an HIV test and are discriminated against if found to be positive.

In need of help?

Companies have faced a barrage of criticism for how they have reacted - or not reacted - to the HIV/Aids pandemic.

But as more employees die, the need to help companies - especially the smaller ones - is becoming more apparent.

In Botswana, the Confederation of Business is about to receive a grant from aid agency Achap in order to help smaller firms tackle the HIV/Aids issue.

It is just one sign that the need to make sure business is equipped to deal with the pandemic is being taken increasingly seriously as one way of safeguarding against an increase in poverty.

Families that are being torn apart by Aids need employment and food as much as they need treatment.

One recent study concluded that one of the most helpful things a firm can do in the battle against HIV/Aids is to maintain its presence in that area.

The West has preached to Africa for decades about how to overcome poverty by opening up their markets and winning a greater share of global trade and more foreign investment.

In one fell swoop, Aids is wiping out the progress that has been made. It now threatens to seriously undermine efforts to entice business and plunge the continent deeper into poverty than ever before.
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