Bay Area Reporter - October 9, 2008
Matthew S. Bajko, m.bajko@ebar.com

Total new infections are believed to be 935 per year, using 2006 data, lower than the 975 number arrived at under the health department's consensus estimate adopted that year. The numbers are based on a population size of 700,000 San Franciscans.

For gay and bisexual men, including those who inject drugs, the difference is starker. While the consensus estimate pegged the number at 814, the new methodology found only 716 new HIV infections among this group.

Dr. Susan Scheer, co-director of the HIV epidemiology section, presented the figures to the HIV Prevention Planning Council at its meeting October 9. While the two incidence numbers vary, she said they "are similar and are within the confidence intervals."

Health officials estimate that new HIV infections in San Francisco each year fall somewhere between 658 and 1,212 cases and have a 95 percent confidence interval that the number is 935. Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there were 56,300 new HIV infections in 2006 based on a population of 240 million people.

"This is an estimate, so it can be off ... because of missing data," said Scheer. The 935 number "is the ballpark figure we are looking at."

Local officials crunched their data by using the new statistical approach recently adopted by the CDC. The method is the first population-based estimate of HIV incidence and is based on those who get tested for HIV as well as those who do not.

In the past, officials had only been using data on people tested for HIV to determine the consensus estimate. The new approach allows city officials to calculate HIV incidence each year, as opposed to every four to five years under the old method.

Scheer said the new surveillance method will "provide a window into the HIV epidemic at an earlier stage of the disease" and that it is meant to help "guide allocation of resources to plan, implement and evaluate prevention programs and services."

She also stressed that the new CDC method is extremely complicated and that some jurisdictions have opted not to publish their numbers "because they look so off to them."

The CDC has funded 33 sites across the country to begin using the new method. HIV officials in San Francisco said they were not concerned about the discrepancy between the consensus estimate and the new CDC method.

"It is remarkable that the 935 is so close to the 975," said HIV prevention director Dr. Grant Colfax. "We don't have absolute truths. But let's be reassured that the data we've been working with is good. This data over time will get better. We should be really excited about seeing this."

Tracey Packer, who was interim HIV prevention director when the consensus numbers where approved by the HPPC, agreed.

"It is confirming what we have been doing is on target," said Packer, now deputy director of the HIV prevention section.

AIDS activist Michael Petrelis said the new numbers add to the growing list of reports and figures pointing to a downward trend in HIV infections in the city.

"It appears as though the CDC methodology results are showing an even lower number of infections. The even lower number is one more indicator of declining HIV numbers in San Francisco," he said.

Scheer expects to present the numbers for 2007 by March.

Milk movie buzz builds

In about two weeks the Milk biopic on slain San Francisco Supervisor Harvey Milk, the country's first openly gay man to win elective office, will premiere at the Castro Theatre, and already Oscar buzz is building for the Gus Van Sant-directed film starring Sean Penn in the title role.

In reviewing the script written by openly gay writer Dustin Lance Black, the Playlist blog (theplaylist.blogspot.com) contends that it is "memorable and perhaps more importantly further reveals (more than just superficially) why Milk could be a heavy Oscar contender."

The blog's reviewers wrote that the juicier roles have been given to the film's minor characters, such as Diego Luna's "flamboyant and hyper jealous Jack Lira character, which is something that could be a thrill to watch onscreen."

The site also is anticipating a star turn by Josh Brolin as Milk assassin Dan White. Brolin is given little screen time but has been heavily highlighted in the movie's trailer, suggesting he could be up for a best supporting role Oscar nom.

Others from the film receiving early praise - and talked of as likely supporting role noms - include James Franco as Milk's lover Scott Smith and Emile Hirsch as devoted Milk loyalist Cleve Jones.

Overall, the script review site concludes that the movie "might not necessarily have the audacious or dazzling notes we're prone to enjoy, but it has that sort of classic presidential reserve and grace that Oscar seems to love (there's one incredibly vivid scene however that's supposed to be an artful voting montage that feels like it was written specifically for Van Sant's artsy proclivities). If Van Sant keeps the cinematics to a Goodwill Hunting-like minimum he could find himself with another best director nomination come February."

Those who have already seen the film are praising Van Sant's depiction of Milk's life and death. Last week at the GLBT Historical Society's gala, honoree Armistead Maupin said gay audiences in particular will be blown away by the movie.

"It hits all the right notes," said Maupin.

Local audiences will have their first shot at seeing the movie Tuesday, October 28 when it has its worldwide premiere at the Castro Theatre. Residents can expect a Hollywood mob scene that afternoon as the movie's stars walk a red carpet phalanxed by TV and print reporters from around the globe. A viewing area for public onlookers will be across the street.

The east side of Castro Street will be taken over beginning at 11 a.m. that day for set up to begin. The red carpet festivities start at 5 p.m., with the northbound sidewalk closed to foot traffic at 4 p.m. Castro Street between Market and 18th streets will be closed to car traffic; only Muni buses will be allowed down the street between 4 and 7 p.m. when the screening begins.

Attendees are being asked to park near City Hall where the after party will be held. Buses will ferry ticket-holders back and forth from the theater to the Civic Center.

"We will try to make it as pleasant as possible and as fun as possible," said San Francisco Film Commission head Stephanie Coyote.

Castro projects head for votes

This Thursday, October 16 the Planning Commission is set to sign off on the permits the historical society needs to open its temporary exhibit in the Castro that is tied into the Milk movie release.

The society has a free one-year lease for the vacant storefront at the corner of 18th and Castro streets to install its "Passionate Struggle" show featuring displays on four areas of the city's LGBT history: politics, people, places, and pleasure.

JPMorgan Chase, which acquired the site after the collapse of Washington Mutual last month, plans to install ATM machines at the site and needs a special use permit in order to do so. Paul Boneberg, the society's executive director, said the nonprofit is ready to begin work on the space as soon as it is given the go ahead by the city.

It is expected to be open by late November. The Milk movie opens nationwide November 26.

At its October 23 meeting the commission will finally take up the Upper Market Design Plan, which has been stalled as the oversight body dealt with zoning changes for the city's eastern neighborhoods.

The plan itself has been in the works for two years and is meant to help developers build projects along upper Market Street that meet the needs of the gay neighborhood's residents.

The commission will be voting on two separate documents. The first document is the Upper Market Community Vision and Recommendations, which will be a standing statement of the community's broad work from three workshops planners held with citizens, and a call to action for future work on the recommendations made by the community through that process, according to planners.

The second document is the Upper Market Development Design Guidelines, which will direct building and site design to be of the character and quality specified by the community through the workshop process, explained city planners. Planners are asking that adherence to these guidelines be a "driving criteria for approval" of any new developments within the Upper Market Plan Area.

Both documents can be downloaded online at www.uppermarket.sfplanning.org.

Planning Commission meetings begin at 1:30 p.m. in Room 400 of City Hall, 1 Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Place.

Keep abreast of the latest LGBT political news by following the Political Notebook on Twitter @ twitter.com/politicalnotes.

Got a tip on LGBT politics? Call Matthew S. Bajko at (415) 861-5019 or e-mail m.bajko@ebar.com.

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