Bay Area Reporter - March 30, 2001
S. Predrag

The panel's final report, which was due by December 31, has not yet been released. There is no official explanation for the delay except that the report is "still being edited."

The South African media, however, quoting reliable sources, claims that both groups of scientists are expected to be unhappy with the final report.

Dr. David Rasnick, Professor Sam Mhlongo, and Professor Charles Geshekter indicated last week that they had asked for permission to write a minority report disagreeing with the final report.

These dissidents say that they will challenge the panel's final report if it cites the arguments of mainstream scientists that there is a link between HIV and AIDS.

"If the final report is anything like the draft version, we have asked the government for permission to write a minority report that reflects our views," said Rasnick.

They also accused mainstream scientists of "sabotaging Mbeki's panel all along by boycotting the panel's Internet discussions and signing the Durban Declaration."

Still, it seems that the mainstream scientists, those who firmly believe that HIV causes AIDS, may also be unhappy with the final report.

According to an unofficial version published in the South African weekly newspaper, the Sunday Independent, in the chapter on "HIV tests and their accuracy," the report states that, "Dr. Rasnick, supported by Professor Mhlongo, recommended that the South African government should consider terminating HIV testing of blood banks and general surveillance since the results of all tests are unreliable and non-specific, and hence give wrong information."

It appears that the dissident scientists believe that AIDS would disappear if all HIV testing were banned, which prompted Tony Leon, leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance, to call on President Mbeki to sack Rasnick from his panel for referring to HIV as a "harmless virus."

Last year, Mbeki wrote to President Clinton, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and some other heads of state that the assumption of a causal link between HIV and AIDS by mainstream doctors and the media amounted to "intellectual intimidation and terrorism." He emphasized that the alleged link required further investigation.

Poll numbers down

In the meantime, Mbeki's ties to the AIDS dissidents have seriously harmed his credibility and popularity.

The Business Day, an influential South African daily, has just published a survey in which almost half of the adult population rated Mbeki's performance "poor" to "very poor."

The survey, conducted through market research house AC Nielsen's Multibus subscription research service, used an area-stratified probability sample of 2,479 households encompassing all race and income groups. The findings are representative of 13.7 million, or 92 percent of all urban adult South Africans.

More than half disagree with Mbeki's view that HIV does not cause AIDS. Six percent agreed completely with him, 4 percent agreed strongly, 8 percent agreed "a little," a quarter felt they did not know enough to form an opinion, while 4 percent said they did not believe news reports about the issue.

The biggest disagreement with Mbeki's handling of the AIDS crisis comes from people aged between 16 and 24 (56 percent), compared to 45 percent of those older than 50.

The survey also showed that more than a third of people without access to television expressed uncertainty about the HIV/AIDS issue, compared to a quarter of those with access to TV.

Those without TV access also were more likely to agree with the president than those able to follow debates and news broadcasts on television. Given these developments, some activists believe it is no wonder that Mbeki and his cabinet colleagues are "still editing" the final report knowing full well that it may have deep political implications.
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