Associated Press - Thursday, November 21, 2002
Ravi Nessman, Associated Press Writer

AIDS-related illnesses were responsible for 9.8 percent of female deaths in South Africa in 2001, up from 5.6 percent in 1997, the survey by Statistics South Africa showed.

The percentage of AIDS-related deaths among all South Africans rose to 8.7 percent in 2001 from 4.6 percent in 1997, the report said.

South African women are more at risk than men for contracting HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, because of biological vulnerability and their lack of control in sexual relationships.

A combined 41 percent of all deaths from 1997-2001 were attributed to tuberculosis, flu and pneumonia - diseases commonly associated with AIDS - as well as AIDS itself, the report said.

The government report came more than a year after the Medical Research Council, a quasi-governmental organization, released a report saying AIDS would account for one-third of all deaths in South Africa in 2001 and nearly two-thirds by 2010 without radical changes in personal behavior and more government action to fight the disease.

At the time, Statistics South Africa called the competing study badly flawed, saying the samples were not representative and assumptions about the probability of HIV transmission were not necessarily accurate.

The government had tried to delay the release of the Medical Research Council's report to coincide with Statistics South Africa's, originally scheduled to be published last December.

Debbie Bradshaw, an epidemiologist at the research council, said Thursday the differences between the two reports were due to Statistics South Africa's reliance on information written on death certificates, where AIDS deaths are routinely underreported.

"It's clear that the ... upward trend that's seen in TB and pneumonia must be related to the HIV epidemic," she said.

Some of the 10 percent of the deaths in 2001 Statistics South Africa blamed on ill-defined natural causes also were likely due to AIDS, she said.

The government said there were potential problems with the Statistics South Africa's reliance on death certificates and that AIDS fatalities were likely higher than reported.

An estimated 4.7 million South Africans, 11 percent of the population, are infected with HIV.

During the debate over the Medical Research Council report, the government had been accused of trying to underplay the impact of AIDS.

President Thabo Mbeki ordered a review of health policies and spending on the basis of 1995 statistics showing AIDS accounted for just 2.2 percent of deaths.

However, since then, the government has promised new funding to fight the disease and said it would explore the possibility of providing AIDS medicine to some South Africans through the public health system.

During the four years of the Statistics South Africa study, deaths from unnatural causes, including suicides, drownings, car accidents and killings, fell from 15.3 percent of deaths to 8.2 percent. Meanwhile, deaths from diseases increased.

The health department said the new report confirmed the need to rally behind the government's AIDS strategy, which includes awareness campaigns, treatment of related infections and research. The statistics also suggested the importance of a stepped up campaign against violence, alcohol abuse and car accidents, the department said.

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