Associated Press - Friday, November 8, 2002
Rajesh Mahapatra, Associated Press Writer

"It is completely inaccurate to claim India will have over 25 million people living with HIV/AIDS by 2010," said Indian Health Minister Shatrughan Sinha.

Sinha's comments came days after U.S. Ambassador Robert Blackwill said India could soon surpass South Africa in the number of people who have HIV/AIDS if the spread of disease is unchecked here.

Blackwill cited a U.S. government report that projected the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in India to rise to 25 million by 2010.

India is now home to about 4 million infected people - more than any other country in the world except South Africa, which has 4.7 million people with the virus.

"We are surprised by the figures being freely cited. I would request all concerned to share with us the detail on which these estimates are based." Sinha said in a statement.

While there are some pockets where HIV infection rates are high, the country's overall infection rate is low, Sinha said. The Indian government says its prevention programs are paying off and the number of HIV/AIDS carriers has stabilized between to 3.5 to 4 million - 0.7 percent of its adult population - over the last three years.

But the U.S. National Intelligence Council said it consulted independent experts and nongovernment research bodies for its study because it felt the Indian government was understating the problem.

In its report titled "The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS," the council said five countries - Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India and China - will see sharp increases in the number of HIV carriers by the end of the decade.

"The rise of HIV/AIDS in the next-wave countries is likely to have significant economic, social, political and military implications," the report said.

But the impact will vary among the five countries. While Nigeria and Ethiopia will be the worst hit, the broader economic and political impact in India and China is likely to be absorbed by the huge population of these countries, the report said.

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