AEGiS-AP: Report estimates AIDS could kill up to 7 million South Africans by 2010

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2001. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Report estimates AIDS could kill up to 7 million South Africans by 2010

Associated Press - October 16, 2001
Mike Cohen, Associated Press

CAPE TOWN, South Africa - Researchers released a report Tuesday estimating AIDS could kill as many as 7 million South Africans by 2010, and they said government officials disputing the findings simply did not understand them.

The report, commissioned by the Medical Research Council, said AIDS would account for one-third of all deaths in South Africa this year - and nearly two-thirds by 2010 without radical changes in personal behavior and more government action to fight the disease.

It predicted average life expectancy would drop from 54 to 41 years in the country.

"South Africa is experiencing an HIV/AIDS epidemic of shattering dimensions," the report said. "These shocking results need to galvanize efforts to minimize the devastation of the epidemic."

The government, which has drawn widespread criticism for its handling of the AIDS crisis, wanted to delay the report's release until December to coincide with publication of another set of AIDS statistics compiled by Statistics South Africa, a government agency. AIDS activists accused the government of suppressing the report to hide the extent of the crisis.

However, a partial copy of the report was leaked to the media, and the government decided to allow its release. Statistics South Africa called the study badly flawed, saying the samples were not representative and assumptions about the probability of HIV transmission were not necessarily accurate.

Using a lower transmission rate would reduce the number of projected AIDS deaths by 2010 to between 1 million and 2 million, Statistics South Africa said.

An estimated 4.7 million South Africans are infected with HIV.

Rob Dorrington, a professor at the University of Cape Town's Center for Actuarial Research and one of the report's authors, said Statistics South Africa's assessment of the report was "prime evidence of the little knowledge or experience they have in this area."

Their calculations produced results that did not correlate with AIDS data gathered from surveys at prenatal clinics, he said.

The report was reviewed by some of the world's leading scientists and statisticians, and its data correlated with data produced by UNAIDS and other organizations that measure HIV/AIDS statistics, said Dr. Malegapuru Makgoba, president of the Medical Research Council, an autonomous research body funded by the government.

The report estimated AIDS will account for 44.7 percent of adult deaths in South Africa this year and 78.6 percent by 2010. The disease will kill 194,892 people this year and 779,098 in 2010, it estimated.

The researchers said a program to administer AIDS drugs through the public health system could significantly reduce the future infection rate. The government says the drugs are too expensive.

Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang told lawmakers Tuesday the government was confident its programs to deal with the pandemic were appropriate and said surveys showed the rate of new infections over the past two years appeared to be leveling off.
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