Associated Press - Tuesday October 31, 2000
Harry Dunphy, Associated Press Writer

Worldwatch Institute chairman Lester Brown said that unless a medical miracle occurs, almost all the 24 million Africans infected with the virus at the beginning of 2000 will die. Each day 6,000 Africans die from AIDS, and an additional 11,000 are infected.

Brown said the epidemic is not being given the priority it deserves, either within countries most affected or in the rich nations and other countries outside Africa.

Some hope is offered in Uganda, one of the earliest-hit countries, which has managed to give AIDS a high priority, and Zambia may be turning the tide in lowering infection rates as well, Brown said in his report, based on research by Worldwatch and other private and government agencies. Brown noted that life expectancy, a key indicator of economic growth, is falling fast in Africa.

In Zimbabwe, without AIDS, life expectancy in 2010 would be 70. With AIDS, it is expected to fall below 35 years. For South Africa it will fall from 68 to 48, and for Zambia from 60 to 30.

"These life expectancies are more akin to those of the Middle Ages than the modern age," Brown said.

New research also indicates the virus reduces fertility, Brown said. The research is limited but indicates that from the time of HIV infection onward fertility among infected women slowly declines.

The report said that by the time symptoms appear, women are 70 percent less likely to be pregnant than those who were not infected.

Because African women most often have sexual relations with older men who are more likely to be infected, the females get the disease earlier and die before completing their reproductive years, which further reduces births.

Worldwatch said Africa faces a shortage of women that is unique in the world.

After wars, countries often face shortages of males, as France did after World War I and Russia after World War II.

"This epidemic, however, is claiming more females than males in Africa, promising a future where men will outnumber women 11 to 9. This will leave many men bachelors or forced to migrate to other countries in search of a wife," the report said.

The death of many young parents in Africa from AIDS is creating millions of orphans as well, with 40 million expected by 2010, it said.

"Although Africa's extended family system is highly resilient and capable of caring for" these children, "it will be staggered by this challenge," the report said. "There is a real possibility that millions of orphans will become street children."

Worldwatch is a nonprofit, independently funded environmental and social research group.

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