Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1998. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
Associated Press - Wednesday, October 28, 1998
Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press Writer
Even though fertility continues to decline as the 21st century approaches, the number of people on Earth is expected to hit 6 billion in 1999, the U.N. Population Division said.
Last year, AIDS killed 2.3 million adults and children worldwide, while 30 million were left infected by HIV, the virus that causes the disease. According to the U.N. figures, 91 percent of AIDS deaths occurred in 34 countries, 29 of them in sub-Sahara Africa. But in the 29 African countries hit hardest by AIDS, the population will remain the same or keep climbing because fertility in these countries is high, according to the U.N. estimates.
The continuing spread of AIDS is having serious population repercussions: Children born today in those 29 African countries will have an average life expectancy of 47 years rather than 54 years if there had not been an AIDS epidemic, the United Nations said.
And the demographic impact is expected to intensify in the future, it said, especially in the nine African countries where more than 10 percent of the adult population has the HIV virus -- Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
"By 2010-2015, the average life expectancy at birth in these countries could be only 47 years. In the absence of AIDS, it would have been expected to reach 63 years. This represents 16 years of life expectancy lost to AIDS," the United Nations said.
The estimates are prepared every two years by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The figures are used throughout the U.N. system.
According to the new estimates, world population stood at 5.9 billion in mid-1998, and was growing by 1.33 percent per year, an average of 78 million people. Countries adding the most population were India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, the United States, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico and the Philippines.
The 1995-2000 population growth rate is significantly less than the peak growth rate of 2.04 percent in 1965-70, and less than the rate of 1.46 percent in 1990-95.
Depending on future fertility trends, U.N. estimates project the world population in 2050 to be in the range of 7.3 billion to 10.7 billion.
Africa has the highest population growth rate of all major regions of the world -- 2.36 percent. And during the last two years, Africa's population, now 749 million, surpassed Europe's, which is 729 million.
Europe has the lowest growth rate, just 0.03 percent, and in Eastern Europe there is a 0.2 percent population decline, it said. The developed world has led the process of population aging since the beginning of the 20th century -- and Europe is most affected. The proportion of older people in Europe will increase from 20 percent in 1998 to 35 percent in 2050, the U.N. said.
For the first time, U.N. experts estimated the number of people in their 80s, 90s and over 100 -- and found 66 million people older than 80, including 135,000 centenarians.
981028
AP981032
Copyright © 1998 - Associated Press. Reproduction of this article (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the AP Permissions Desk.
AEGiS is a 501(c)3, not-for-profit, tax-exempt, educational corporation. AEGiS is made possible through unrestricted funding from Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS, Elton John AIDS Foundation, National Library of Medicine, Pacific Life Foundation, and donations from users like you.
Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 1998. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.
AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All information contained on this website, including information relating to health conditions, products, and treatments, is for informational purposes only. It is often presented in summary or aggregate form. It is not meant to be a substitute for the advice provided by your own physician or other medical professionals. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.
Copyright ©1980, 1998. AEGiS. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content. .