afrol.com, 10 November - The newly released Mid-year population estimates by Statistics South Africa operates with two numbers. Estimations are made on the basis on the 1996 census and projections of fertility and mortality. Adding the AIDS factor, estimations now have been scaled down by 300.000 persons.

Statistics South Africa (a Government Agency) annually publishes its population estimates, an elaborated piece of work assessing the South African population. New this year is a change of method rendered necessary by the AIDS epidemic.

As a census is a resource demanding process which is only implemented seldom, and therefore annual numbers normally depend on projections based on available data. These data are the known population of a given census year (1996 in South Africa) and the estimated population increase due to deaths and births (fertility/mortality), which are known from earlier censuses, and normally relatively stable.

This year, however, Statistics South Africa had to adjust the mortality numbers as the changes were assessed to have been dramatic since the 1996 census. With a "normal" increase, following the previous trends, the South African population in mid-2000 would have been 43,68 million. However, when "taking into account additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS" the population of South Africa is estimated to be 43,29 million - almost 300,000 less.

Statistics South Africa bases its adjusted mortality number on a 1999 sero-prevalence survey conducted by the Department of Health among pregnant women visiting antenatal clinics. Here, HIV prevalence was estimated at 22,4%. 

The assessment by Statistics South Africa is confirmed by several UN reports, for example claiming that "AIDS is set to claim the lives of around half of all 15-year-olds" in hard hit countries like South Africa. On this background, the dramatic increase in mortality is just in its beginning in South Africa, and the numbers released by Statistics South Africa are rather conservative than exaggerating. 

With a total of at least 4.2 million infected people (one tenth of the total population), South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV/AIDS in the world, as well as one of the world’s fastest-growing epidemics. Already, 1 in 4 South African women between ages 20 and 29 are infected with the virus. 

Youths are the hardest hit by this epidemic. In the North West Province, the 1999 figures suggest that it is registered the most significant increases in the age-groups 14-19 years, 25-29 years and 25-39 years. The least increase has been in the age groups 20-24 years, 30-34 years and over 40 years. However, South Africa is beginning to witness deaths of adults in their thirties and forties who were infected when they were young.

According to information from the Health Department in North West Province, there are an estimated 1600 new infections daily in South Africa. "Within three years, almost a quarter of a million South Africans will die of AIDS each year and this figure will have risen to more than half a million by 2008. This will require intensified care and support for those infected and affected," Dr. Molefi Sefularo (MEC for Health in South Africa's North West Province) informed earlier this year.

South Africa has an estimated annual population growth rate of 2%, representing almost 900,000 in real numbers. Taking into account the estimations by Dr. Molefi Sefularo, this could by reduced to an annual population increase of 700,000 or 1,6% in three years.

Compared to the lowered annual population growth in Europe and North America, this however would be based on a higher mortality and not a lower fertility. As such, the demographic trends in contemporary South Africa are unprecedented, in all their tragedy.

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