WASHINGTON, Nov 28, 2006 (AFP) - Tobacco will kill 8.3 million people worldwide in 2030, as smoking-related deaths rise by 53 percent over the 25 years, according to a World Health Organization study published Tuesday.
Two WHO researchers traced three scenarios based on varying social and economic development trends to project world rates of sickness and death from a range of causes.
They project that life expectancy will increase around the world, with fewer deaths of children under five years of age.
At the same time, the proportion of people dying from non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer will increase, according to the study published in the international open-access journal Public Library of Science Medicine (PLoS).
Global deaths from HIV/AIDS are projected to increase to 6.5 million in 2030 compared to 2.8 million in 2002, assuming antiretroviral drugs reach 80 percent of patients by 2012, according to the study.
Only 24 percent of the 6.8 million AIDS patients currently have access to drug treatment that can prolong their lives, according to UNAIDS, a United Nations agency.
Under an "optimistic" scenario, which also assumes stepped-up prevention, HIV/AIDS deaths drop to 3.7 million in 2030.
Tobacco will kill 50 percent more people than HIV/AIDS in 2015 and be responsible for 10 percent of global deaths, according to the projections.
The rise of tobacco-related deaths, from 5.4 million in 2005 to 8.3 million in 2030, was projected on a baseline scenario based on current trends.
Meanwhile, the risk of death for children under five years old will fall by nearly 50 percent by 2030, according to the baseline scenario.
The study also predicted that the proportion of people dying from non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer will increase to 69 percent in 2030 from 59 percent in 2002 worldwide.
Two WHO researchers, Colin Mathers and Dejan Locar, used models based on three different scenarios: baseline; pessimistic, assuming a slower rate of socio-economic development; and optimistic, assuming a faster growth rate.
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