PARIS, Nov 25 (AFP) - United Nations agencies on Tuesday marked down their estimates of the number of people living with HIV or AIDS but warned that this was only a statistical makeover and the global pandemic was worsening by the day.
In their annual update on the greatest health peril today, UNAIDS and the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated the global tally of people infected with AIDS or the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in 2003 to be around 40 million.
That compares with estimates a year earlier of 42 million people living with HIV/AIDS.
Around three million people will have died from AIDS this year, and five million more people will have become infected with the virus that causes it, the report said.
The two agencies said the downgrade was prompted by the advent of more accurate tools to collect raw data from 130 countries and to analyse it.
Their grim warning remained unchanged: the pandemic is pursuing its terrifying onward march in sub-Saharan Africa and is poised for an explosive breakout in parts of Asia and the former Soviet Union.
"Applying the improved tools and methods to previous years shows that there have been steady increases in the number of people living with HIV/AIDS, as well as in the number of AIDS deaths," the 2003 "AIDS Epidemic Update" said.
"The number of people living with HIV/AIDS continues to increase in several regions, most markedly in sub-Saharan Africa, with southern Africa registering the highest prevalence.
"Asia and the Pacific as well as Eastern and Central Asia continue to experience expanding epidemics, with the number of people living with HIV/AIDS growing year by year."
The statistical overhaul was caused in part by fresh data, such as national surveys of households, and by UN census information that showed some countries in Africa have smaller populations than previously thought.
But experts also concluded the picture would be more reliable if they gave a range for their estimate rather than a single hard figure as before.
Thus the 40 million expressed for the global tally of people living with HIV/AIDS is halfway between a low of 34 million and a high of 46 million.
The range for new infections goes from 4.2 to 5.8 million, and the number of deaths in 2003 is from 2.5-3.5 million.
By applying the same tools to previous years, UNAIDS/WHO acknowledge that past estimates were at the high end of the scale. In 2002, the 42 million figure would be downgraded to 38 million, in a range of roughly 32-44 million.
The planetary state of the pandemic remains very varied, as do the various motors for its spread, said the report.
It has been largely controlled in rich, western countries, where anti-retroviral drugs and good health systems have helped stem the tide.
In Latin America, North Africa, the Middle East and the Sahel, infection rates remain relatively low, at 0.7 percent of the adult population or less.
Sub-Saharan Africa, where the pandemic is mainly being spread by promiscuous heterosexual intercourse, bears the brunt of the crisis. One in every 12 adult Africans has HIV.
The region accounts for two-thirds of total infections and AIDS deaths, reflecting the failures of awareness programmes and lack of access to the life-prolonging cocktail of drugs against HIV.
"How long it will stay like this will depend on the vigour, scale and effectiveness of prevention, treatment and care programmes," UNAIDS and the WHO said.
"Urgent and dramatic headway is required on all these fronts, and in unison. Anything less will spell failure."
In parts of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, China, India and parts of Southeast Asia, infection that until now has been mainly limited to sex workers and intravenous drug users is now poised to leap into the mainstream population.
The report said the picture is not entirely bleak, however.
It noted that over the past two or three years, money has started to flow or been committed to Africa, from the Global Fund and US President George Bush's AIDS initiative; that the cost of antiretrovirals is coming down; and countries are moving to set up coordinate programmes to distribute these precious drugs.
"But, measured against the scale of the global epidemic, the current pace and scope of the world's response to HIV/AIDS fall far short of what is required.
"The struggle against AIDS has reached a crossroads: either we inch along, making piecemal progress, or we now turn the full weight of our knowledge, resources and commitment against this epidemic. The choice is clear."
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