SYDNEY, April 4 (AFP) - The mystery pneumonia virus which has claimed scores of lives across the world is unlikely to develop into a pandemic, an Australian expert said as suspected cases rose to seven in Australia on Friday.
John Mills, professor of microbiology at Melbourne's Monash University, said while the outbreak was getting worse, it was unlikely to reach global epidemic proportions because of the way the infection travels.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which is believed to have started in China, had killed 79 people from 2,223 cases in 19 countries by Friday, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Mills said the pneumonia-like SARS was probably caused by a new virus which had jumped from animals to humans, but was unlikely to pose the same sort of threat as the 1918 influenza epidemic that killed tens of millions.
"The 1918 epidemic was caused by an airborne influenza virus that was able to travel long distances," he said.
"The SARS virus appears to require close human contact for infection to occur, either by touch or inhaling exhaled particles, similar to the way in which colds are spread from one person to another."
Mills said the most likely hypothesis was that the SARS virus originated in animals that were infected, but did not show any symptoms.
"However, when a virus jumps from animals to humans it can have deadly consequences," he said.
"There have been examples of this in the past including HIV, which was sourced back to chimpanzees in the jungles of Africa.
"The animals were not bothered at all by the HIV virus, but it spread widely among humans with tragic consequences."
Mills said it was likely the virus would be traced back to China, where people have close contact with domestic animals.
Among the seven suspected cases in Australia are three children from one Canadian family, who arrived in Melbourne last week from Toronto, where six deaths have been attributed to it.
The children, a three-year-old girl and boys aged 18 months and six, were taken to a Melbourne medical centre where they remained observation on Friday. Four other suspected cases have been reported since Australia notified its first probable case to the WHO this week.
But health authorities say Australia so far remains clear of the virus despite the one probable case -- a visitor from Britain, who recovered -- and is likely to be spared any epidemic.
In a bid to stop it getting in, the government announced Friday that doctors and nurses would be placed at major Australian airports from Saturday to boost protection against SARS.
Australia's deputy chief medical officer John Mathews said he was confident the country had enough safeguards to stop the virus becoming an epidemic.
"Our surveillance and health facilities are good, and we don't expect we'll get local transmission of SARS in Australia," he said.
Victoria's state health authority said Friday it would be several days before it was determined whether the three Canadian children were suffering from SARS.
"It is more a matter of elimination than diagnosis," Department of Human Services spokesman Bram Alexander said.
"There is no specific test for SARS so it is a matter of ruling out what they don't have and also testing them against the WHO's clinical diagnosis."
Australians have been urged to postpone travel to the worst affected countries: China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Canada.
030404
AF030413
©AFP 2003. All Rights Reserved. AFP articles contained on the AEGiS web site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without AFP's prior written permission. You may make one copy of each article for your personal, non-commercial use only; more copies would require AFP's prior written permission. obtained from the owners of any trademarks or copyrighted materials whose marks and materials are included in AFP photos or materials. Therefore you will be solely responsible for obtaining any and all necessary releases from whatever individuals and/or entities necessary for any uses of AFP stories, photos or graphics. - http://www.afp.com/
AEGiS is made possible through unrestricted grants from Boehringer Ingelheim, the National Library of Medicine, and donations from users like you. Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 2003. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.
©1990, 2003 - AEGiS. AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content.
