HARARE, Dec 30 (AFP) - A severe food crisis that has dogged southern Africa throughout 2002 is expected to continue, largely due to slow food imports, erratic rainfall and shortages of seeds and fertilisers.
Some 14.4 million people are threatened by famine in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, the countries hardest hit in the region.
In Namibia another 400,000 people face starvation, while in Angola close to two million people are also under threat of hunger, largely as a result of the country's long civil war, which ended in April.
Cereal deficits in the affected countries are expected to continue, according to food security agents operating in the region.
"Large remaining cereal gaps in some countries will be difficult to fill before the end of the marketing season," the Southern African Development Community (SADC) food security network has warned.
"Of particular concern are Zambia and Zimbabwe," the network said in its latest ministerial briefing.
The network said that poor rainfall is likely to affect production of the region's main staple food crop, maize, even in South Africa, the top regional exporter of the grain in 2002.
South Africa's maize production for the 2002/03 season has been estimated at 7.35 million tonnes compared to an average over the past five years of 8.43 million tonnes, according to the SADC's food security network.
"Zambia has made the least progress towards filling its cereal gap," according to the network, which notes that less than 10 percent of the southern African country's import requirements have been met.
A ban on genetically engineered food by the Zambian government has slowed imports of food aid into the famine-ravaged country. Hunger is expected to spread in Zambia in the next year, affecting 2.9 million people, or about a third of the population.
"Current commercial and food aid import plans, even if fully met, would fill only 63 percent of this remaining gap," warned the network.
Zimbabwe, the country worst hit by the famine, faces a cereal deficit of 907,000 tonnes. Even if food import plans are realised, there will still be a shortfall of 500,000 tonnes.
More than two thirds of Zimbabwe's 11.6 million people are at risk of famine.
"Although the government plans to import an additional 336,000 tonnes, there is concern about government capacity to import this quantity due to foreign exchange and other constraints," said the SADC network.
Humanitarian aid agencies say the shortages in Zimbabwe have been compounded by a controversial land reform scheme that dismantled large, white-owned commercial farms in the last two planting seasons and saw widespread delays in resettling the land with new black farmers.
Zimbabwe has acknowledged the problems dogging the current crop planting season.
The Agricultural Research and Extension Services (Arex) said in its latest crop and livestock report, published last week, that "the problems associated with seed, fertiliser and draught power shortages persist" throughout the country, once considered a regional breadbasket.
In Malawi, imports have so far met just over half of food needs.
The US-funded Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET), said international responses to appeals for food aid launched by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) have only met about three-quarters of southern Africa's needs.
HIV/AIDS has also exacerbated food insecurity in the region, which is seen as the epicentre of the killer pandemic.
In some countries, up to 35 percent of the population is infected by the disease, thus compromising agricultural productivity as "able-bodied workers are bed-ridden and ... household food expenditures are diverted to medical care", according to FEWSNET.
The widespread hunger has also led to the general weakening of the labour force.
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