Botswana-AIDS: HIV/AIDS will curb Botswana's economic growth by third: report

Agence France-Presse - May 15, 2000

GABORONE, May 15 (AFP) - The HIV/AIDS epidemic will curb the growth of the economy of Botswana by about a third over the next ten years, according to a government-commissioned report published Monday.

The report projects that over the next decade the diamond-rich country's economy will be 31 percent smaller than it would have been without the disease.

One in four economically active adults in Botswana have tested HIV positive, the report by the independent Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis said.

This translates into one fifth of the country's 1.5 million people.

The report said that HIV/AIDS will cut the gross domestic product, currently around four percent, by 1.5 percent over the next five years.

It will also cause a shortage of skilled workers, pushing skilled wages up by between 12 and 17 percent.

Government revenues will drop and expenditure rise, leading to a cumulative deficit of 21 percent in 10 years, the report said. The country currently has a budget surplus.

"HIV is the single greatest threat to human welfare and development in Botswana and the rigorous planning and monitoring of interventions against it should be given the highest priority," the report said.

The disease will cause a rapid increase in the number of very poor and destitute households, it said.

"Per-capita household income for the poorest quarter of households is expected to fall by 13 percent while every income earner in this category can expect an extra four dependants as a result of HIV/AIDS," the report said.

However, the country's key diamond industry would be least affected. "They are still expected to contribute about one half of the government income," it said.

Botswana's diamond industry is highly mechanised and employs only about 6,000 people out of a formal sector which in 1997 employed 228,000 people, it said.

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