Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2002. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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Africa News Service (12.16.02) - Tuesday, December 17, 2002
New Vision
The report, produced by a team of American and Ugandan researchers, is based on analysis of the changes in people's behaviors as seen in demographic and health surveys. In their report, "What Happened in Uganda," the researchers say condom promotion "has played a key but evidently not the major role" in reducing infection rates. Their argument is that HIV prevalence started declining in 1992. This, they say, must have been the result of a reduction in new infections about 1989. By that time, they argue, very few people were using condoms. The researchers, however, agree that increased use of condoms during the mid and late 1990s must have further slowed the spread of the virus.
According to demographic survey reports, in 1989 only 1 percent of Ugandan women had ever used a condom, but this increased to 6 percent in 1995 and 16 percent in 2000. The figure for men rose from 16 percent in 1995 to 40 percent in 2000.
Edward Green, of the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies and the lead author of the report, said large numbers of Ugandans must have heeded President Yoweri Museveni's earlier warning that "you abstain, be faithful or die." Green says the fact that fewer Ugandans are having casual sex has contributed the most to the decline. Researchers show that the number of people who have sex with more than one partner has declined since the late 1980s. Also, younger people engage in sex at a later age, and the percentage of teenagers who are sexually active has dropped. "There is some power in promoting abstinence and being faithful," said Green.
However, the latest demographic survey shows that between 1995 and 2000, the number of unfaithful men and women has slightly increased.
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