Scope of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1995. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Scope of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States

Science (11/24/95) Vol. 270, No. 5240, P. 1372
Rosenberg, Philip S.

In the journal Science, Philip S. Rosenberg reports that a deconvolution method called backcalculation was used to estimate the nation's age-specific HIV infection rates as of January 1993. Using this technique, there were an estimated 630,000 to 897,000 HIV-infected children and adults--including up to 150,000 women--at that time. Among white males, particularly those over the age of 30, the estimated rate of infection decreased significantly over time. However, incidence of HIV seems to have remained steady among both women and minorities. Prevalence was greatest among young adults in their late twenties and thirties and among minorities, the study concluded. According to Rosenberg, if HIV infection rates continue at the levels indicated by these models, the virus should be regarded as an endemic infection that will touch successive groups of young people.

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